#13. Marking the Future

Welcome back to the Poly Marks Podcast — your weekly reminder that betting on the future is easier than predicting it.

This week we hit three big themes:

• A wild media-merger market (HBO/Warner + Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL) and why “IP” might be the real prize in the AI era
• Canada vs the U.S. recession odds (and whether the numbers can be “juiced”)
• Early 2028 election positioning: who might announce a presidential run before 2027, and why a “sprinkle” can still be a good trade

We also detour into China vs U.S. economics, data centers, energy constraints, and whether AI is still early innings… or closer to a dot-com style reckoning.

Not financial advice. Entertainment only.

Chapters

00:00 Cold open — “Delete this, lawyer”
 01:10 HBO/Warner merger market: Netflix vs Paramount vs NO DEAL
 12:40 AI + IP licensing (why libraries matter)
 20:30 Canada recession bet: how it resolves + why it might hit
 31:10 U.S. recession odds + tariffs + supply chain uncertainty
 40:20 AI bubble “burst” market: what would need to happen
 52:10 Venezuela tanker seizure bet: why another one won’t happen this year
 58:30 2028 election odds: Kamala “sprinkle,” Newsom skepticism, who announces early
 1:06:30 Wrap + year-end recap teaser