Poly Marks
Poly Marks is a humorous podcast where brothers Andrew, Matt, and moderator Joel explore Polymarket’s markets, share their betting mishaps, and debate trends with sibling flair.
Poly Marks
#25. Tankers, Tolls, and Trump's Timelines
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This week on the Poly Marks Podcast, the boys break down Trump’s latest address on Iran and what it signals for the trajectory of the conflict.
They explore the growing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz—where Iran is effectively taxing global shipping—and debate whether this represents a temporary disruption or a permanent shift in global power.
From ceasefire timelines to boots-on-the-ground probabilities, the episode dives deep into prediction markets, highlighting where the odds may be mispriced and where the real “alpha” lies.
They also discuss second-order effects on oil, global supply chains, and crypto, before closing with a look at Canada—where Alberta’s referendum momentum raises questions about sovereignty closer to home.
Guys' hairlines are so much better than mine. I really don't like doing this. If we actually have to do a video, I might have to wear a hat every week, you know. That are that or AI. That are AI of myself a hairline.
SPEAKER_00Okay.
SPEAKER_03All right.
SPEAKER_00You realize I'm gonna use it as a cold open now, right? What are you gonna do?
SPEAKER_04Mark's podcast.
SPEAKER_03All right. Well, welcome everybody to episode 25 of the Polymarks podcast. This is your weekly reminder that betting on the future is easier than predicting it. I'm your host Joel here with my brothers Matt and Andrew. Got an exciting week uh talking about Iran. We just had a little speech by Trump that we wanted to kind of live discuss. We're gonna be talking ceasefire bets, we're gonna be talking straight-up or moves, strike bets from other countries. Uh, and then we also wanted to touch a little bit on our our home country of Canada. But uh let's start it off with um kind of a discussion about the the address tonight from Trump. Andred, what are your thoughts on that?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, so maybe just to do a quick little summary of what we all just listened to, um seemed like Trump was initially laying out the history of uh Iran's relations, let's say, with the United States and uh all the different uh attacks that they can either provably or it's thought to be uh connected to the IRGC and their regime. Um and then he talked about that the strategic objectives that they have in this war. I don't know, are we calling it a war? Are nearing completion. I mean, he also gave a recap of all the timelines for every war.
SPEAKER_03He's like the Iraq war took 12 years, the you know, the World War II took four years to be.
SPEAKER_02I mean, that's a tell that it seems like it's not ending. It's like it's like it's like that's like him trying to say, hey guys, if this was to take six months, that's way better than I, you know, Afghanistan and Iraq, right? Like I that would be. No, I thought that was the biggest tell that this ain't ended anytime soon. They might have said, you know, first they already formalized two or three weeks, but I whatever it was, I I I took it in my head a lot further than that.
SPEAKER_00Well, the actually the first thing he did was talk about Venezuela and the incredible success that he has there. Almost is to say, hey, let me remind you guys that I just kind of, you know, and and of course he futs the numbers in terms of how much oil they're getting from Venezuela and how much, you know, control he has over that government, let's say. But he first thing he did was to lay the groundwork of, hey guys, don't remember the last quote unquote war that I just won and getting into Iran. But he said that their objectives are almost complete. Uh two to three weeks is the time frame that he's still saying. Sounds similar to the you know, two to three weeks till we get a new uh Obamacare replacement that never arrived, you know, two to three weeks.
SPEAKER_02Two to three weeks to flatten the curve, or until we're up with Afghanistan.
SPEAKER_00Exactly, you know, like uh like the the COVID the COVID thing, uh honestly, it does sort of it does ring that way. Yeah. Kind of gives me a little bit of the P post-PTSD kind of thing. But he warned that he's gonna hit Iran's infrastructure, oil, power stations, pumping stations. If there's no business. And I I thought, I mean, we'll we can talk about this coming coming up, but he also did not shit talk NATO like he's been doing all week, and made a pretty plaintiff plea from what I could hear, both to NATO to run the the blockade, run into the Straits of Hormuz, and he also encouraged the Gulf Allied states to join the fight. So, I mean, yeah, a lot of things to talk about there, a lot of markets that are uh are affected by the the remarks you made. But do you guys want to start with timelines and ceasefire agreements and where do we think this could go?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I guess one of the interesting things in my head to think about is if there's any way that America I mean, Israel too, maybe want to talk about even just America, maybe maybe there is a future where Israel and Iran keeps up some kind of tensions with America, like more or less backing out, at least like the you know, the carriers outside of the Persian Gulf kind of thing. But is there any way that they do that without the straits returning to normal? And it seems like they're starting to talk about like that might be a possibility, but it seems like that's just so crazy because it's such a failure. It's like you you guys, the the the Straits of Hermuz have been open for 40 plus years. Do you know what I mean? We haven't had any problems, and now you're talking about like, oh well, Iran's gonna have like some official policy where they make millions of dollars off every boat, and they every single country basically has to set up some type of agreement with them to allow them to come to the holding all the oil industry hostage. Well, I mean, but even if they they just they did they actually formalize it and just say now we're getting the troops coming in, or sorry, the the ships coming in and out, we're making money, like that really increases their power. So now you're walking away with little regime change and a much stronger Iran, like that seems crazy.
SPEAKER_00So maybe just to paint a picture of the the lay of the land, uh so to speak, America and Israel continue to bomb Iranian targets. Um I think they're still going after IRGC um leadership and uh command and control. Trump said that a lot this evening, but more recently they've gone after sort of industrial capacity. They hit three of the the main steel uh facilities that Iran has, um and then just recently hit some uh some oil facilities, it it seems, either them or the Israelis. And then on the Iranian side, they are well, they definitely have uh mined the shipping lanes where ships normally travel uh around the Straits of Hormuz. That's been confirmed, I believe, by Trump himself, but definitely by the news. And any ships that are currently transiting the straits, which you know you can count probably on one hand most days, whereas pre-war we're talking 100 plus ships, uh, they're all going around the some of these islands that are are are close to the straits into Iranian territorial waters in order to pass through. And like you were talking about, Matt, they're basically extracting a toll from all the ships that want to leave, either politically or literally in terms of money, uh, a lot of which I hear is being transacted in uh yuan or Bitcoin.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, and I mean I like you say, it's essentially a hostage situation. Um, they're forcing all the ships to go close to the Iranian coast where they're saying, hey, we've got this lane that you can come through, but if you don't pay the toll, you know, you've also got a bunch of missiles lined up aimed at that shipping lane that uh is is ripe for the picking. So yeah, I mean, obviously ships that don't have Iranian goet, I don't think are gonna go through.
SPEAKER_02Well, yeah, no, they're I mean, no one's going through without their official permission, but I believe it's actually more formalized that and it's about to become even more formalized, which is like you reach out to someone, you know, something, and they like they they check your lists and they say you're not connected to Israel or America, then they say, okay, you know, pay us like a dollar a barrel or whatever, and like we'll let you come through. And it's like, and they're also apparently enacting some of a law to kind of formalize this. So that's a that's a huge sea change, you know what I mean? And it's also a huge sea change because the only people that extract tolls right now are like the Panama and Suez Canal, where it's like, no, no, we built a canal, so we can, it's not really just you know open waters.
SPEAKER_00Like this is again, would be a kind of a Panama didn't build the canal.
SPEAKER_02Well, America did, I get it. But I'm just saying it's but like the canal was built by hand, so it's like it's reasonable to charge it's doesn't it's not natural waterway, but this is just a natural waterway, you just happen to have you know controlling interests on the one side of it, and it's like that's like kind of unprecedented as well. So it's like kind of like a major global change if this was to somehow they were to walk away from this war with them essentially in full control of the Strait Harmuz. Um, and you think, and the other interesting thing I thought tonight was that he really kind of formalized the um the the alliances, right? Talking specifically about Israel that all the GCE or whatever, the Gulf Council, right? And so he named them all explicitly, and so it's like yeah, they they have to get their stuff out one way or another. So they either have to have a deal with America to open this up, or they have to have a deal with Iran, and I don't see how that changes in the near term. Long story short, of the way of saying is like, I don't think this is ending anytime surely. Um, and I think this is gonna the straight or who moves is gonna end up being the big kind of yeah, quagmire that we're in. Like, how do you get out of how do you fix this? How do you get out of it? And then the only answer seems to be ground troops, which just seems like even more of a cluster F, you know.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, and I mean we've we've got a few different markets around Iran. I don't know if Andrew had any more thoughts about the straight, because I think you've got more bets around this, but you know, I just re-upped on my ceasefire bet for May 31st, which was at uh um I think uh 47%, right? It's like I still feel like that May timeline ending it before then, you know, despite Trump saying two to three weeks, just doesn't seem real less standing. So that's I mean, currently my my largest position. But um what do you guys think? I mean, I my UAE strike I ran April 30th, Andrew. I mean, you told me about that a few days ago. It's gone down. What's what's going on with some of those Iran bets, Andrew? What do you what do you think is still interesting in this market?
SPEAKER_00So I mean, I guess I'll talk uh my my my two biggest positions I'm still I still like the most. Um, and that's no ceasefire by April 15th. Um I bought into that initially at 66 cents, it's now up 86 cents, so um pretty good return already. Another 15 points to go. I'm very confident hanging on to that one. The other one that I like is the straight of Hormuz traffic returns to normal uh by April 30th. I don't think there's any chance that the straight traffic returns to normal. Um, even with a ground invasion, it's not like all of a sudden the channel gets demined. Uh the again, what what would have to be you know a rolling seven-day average compared to pre-war totals? That's a hundred plus ships per day. There's no way that amount of traffic is gonna go through the straits by the end of April. And I feel like betting on the city.
SPEAKER_03What are the odds for end of April on the dome?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, because so I bought in initially at 68 cents, it's now up to 84 cents. So both those are it's not a huge return period, but you've got a decent return.
SPEAKER_02You've yeah, exactly. You're cut you're kind of talking about already winners, which is great to have. And you know, with them saying two to three weeks already, like it doesn't seem like there's any short-term um kind of turnaround. I think the more interesting questions is kind of talking about Joel's bets, the May 31st. I've had some some June 30th, 30th bets as well. It's like, what are the odds and do you think there's value kind of extending this and looking into the future? Like, is this gonna be, you know, like all the other Middle East wars we've had in our lifetime, where it's at the very least months, if not years. Um, and I kind of like I kind of like those bets.
SPEAKER_03Um I was gonna say, at least in terms of the east this east fire with those different dates you talk about. I when I was re-upping, I was looking at sort of choosing between the June 30th and the May 31st. And the June 30th is only at 39% for the note, whereas May 30th is 49 or 49 cents, you know. So that seemed to me the June just the upside didn't seem as good in terms of that, right? Even even like, you know, December is still a 28%, right? Like if you're betting on the end of the year, you're you're not getting a significant difference rather than just kind of betting on May, which seems almost guaranteed.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, my favorite bet right now, and I I don't have a big number on this, but I think I might sell actually the uh the majority of my other ceasefire bets and put them into this one. So I'll have to do that before the pod comes out and we drastically change our odds, if you know what I mean. By this is it's always gonna be behind. Oh, the needle will move. Obviously, I can't get a good good good number if this gets out to the public before I do all my um my placements recording to the first.
SPEAKER_03So I have full faith that my brand my brother and the PMP editor Andrew will get this out tonight. So we we'll be right on top of this, I'm sure. Okay, no guarantees to our uh toilet. Better buy quick.
SPEAKER_02But what what I was gonna say is I think my favorite bet right now is Iran uh Israel US conflict ends by June 30th, which um like technically like there could be some type of almost ceasefire or something like that, but they have to go 14 days without any firing on either side from anybody. Um, it does exclude like um like the Houthis or anything like that, so it's not like the proxies count. I still like it. It's at 30% right now. Um, I got in at 23. Um, yeah, I think there's a good chance. Like, like the I do I think there's a better than three to three to one chance that this is still going on at the end of June? I really do. I think it's at best a coin flip. I think it maybe even less than that. So I just think there's a lot of value there. Uh, and so I think that's gonna probably turn into my biggest position. Um, at least as far as dealing with Iran in general.
SPEAKER_00So you like the yes at 30% that there's still gonna be somebody firing. No, I I like the no.
SPEAKER_02I like the no, no, no conflict ends. Sorry, it's it's US Israel, uh, I uh Iran America conflict ends by June 30th. I like the no that it ends by then. You can get in at 30.
SPEAKER_00So that it the war doesn't end. The war doesn't end. Somebody's still firing.
SPEAKER_02And there's no exactly, and there's no four there's there's no 14-day period where there's no rockets fired by either side or no whatever, anything like that. Uh, I think that's the really good value when you think like the chances that I mean, like we said, Trump talked about months. He's talking about bringing on new allies potentially with the Gulf. He's talking still trying to get NATO in. There was a new apparently Trump threatened to shut off all arms transfers to uh Ukraine if NATO didn't play ball more in with those straight-off her moves, like basically not allowing the Europeans to trans for buy weapons through like American transfers to send them to Ukraine. And so Mark Rutt, the was it the president, not the president, whatever the leader of the leader of the of NATO kind of came out recently with you know some level of support for kind of sending more support to uh the Persian Gulf. So I think there's a lot of kind of indications that this might go longer. I also like the invasion bet. We can talk a little bit that later, but in general, I think that's my new biggest best bet, and not to toot my own horn, but I have uh kind of decent record on some of these bigger best bets in the past with Venezuela and come on even taken out, etc.
SPEAKER_03Um, yeah. I mean, I I I like we said we have the UAE strike bets, um, and then that kind of leads into something we've kind of hinted at before, which is the boots on the ground. You know, I have the US forces entering Iran by December 31st bet. I bought in at 55, it's up to 66 now, and you know, 20% increase. Um what do you guys think in terms of if you were to get into a this market or a similar market, um, in terms of boots on the ground, when do you think it would happen? What do you think? Where do you where's the alpha?
SPEAKER_00So maybe I'll talk UAE bets first, because this was actually my call that I got Joel maybe to buy into a little bit. Um maybe early.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. Is there like a secret group chat you guys have with Elby? Because I didn't hear about this. No, no, no.
SPEAKER_03We were talking about this, Maddie. I mean, you did I just miss that on yeah, whatever. Please tell me, send the links. What are you guys betting on? I'm losing money. Please help.
SPEAKER_00So uh I I I was looking at a graph today of where Iranian strikes have been hitting in the Gulf, and the number one target with a bullet is the UAE. Um probably have more strikes in the UAE than like maybe the bottom three of you know Oman and Bahrain and Qatar combined or something like that. I think second was Saudi, but there's been a lot of strikes hitting the Emirates. Um and then what I like, and this is sort of my angle on this one, is that in the Straits of Hormuz there are several islands that are actually a little closer to uh the UAE, the the Emirates, than they are to Iran, Iran. And the UAE claims these islands, but they've been occupied de facto by uh Iranian since who knows when. But in order to properly militarize the straits, those islands would be a great jumping off point uh for Marines to hit the beaches. And in order to legitimize uh these invasions, maybe almost as a um a ratcheting up thing, where you're like, well, these are the UAE's always claimed these islands, so now we're helping the UAE reclaim their territory. And for that reason, but both that and the number of strikes the UAE has received, I think it's not maybe not likely, but there's a good chance that UAE might do some strikes of their own. They've done so in the past against ISIS, uh, and I think it's gonna come. The odds of I have a bet both on the UAE striking and uh another country joining the conflict. Like Joel said, I might got in a little early. I kind of had 30 cents for another country to conduct military action against Iran. It's down to 19 now. Uh, and then the UAE, the odds of them hitting uh what's the day for that, Andrew? April 30th. And I'm I might be a little early uh with that too. But it's uh down to 13 cents now.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I was gonna say it feels like it feels like it's gonna take some time for some of these other countries to come in. Um again, I I I like to to shame you for getting me in early, but it sounds like I may have gotten in slightly better than you with some of those bets, because I think you had already gone down when I got in.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_03Um I mean, we're talking about the islands in the strait. One of the big ones that, again, was kind of hinted at by Trump tonight was was Carg Island and some of the oil infrastructure there. Do you guys think, I mean, we look at this bet, you know, will carg island oil terminal be hit by um in April 15th, it's at, you know, only 18% on the yes, April 30th, 23% on the yes. What do you guys think in terms of either a strike on Carg Island as a launching off point or kind of like you say, as part of that general strategy of getting UAE islands back?
SPEAKER_00Well, there's also uh a market that I have, which is will Carg Island no longer be under Iranian control? I got into that one around thirty. It's now down to eighteen as well. So the market's basically saying one in five chance uh Trump takes out their oil facility, one in five chance that he invades the oil facilities. Three out of five, nothing happens.
SPEAKER_02Well, if you guys remember, I think, you know, it was they had all these different threats about Trump did, you know, explicitly saying we're gonna bomb the power plants and the desalination plants and like kind of all this different stuff. And then he, you know, he always kind of throws the thread out on a Friday, and then Monday morning, yeah, just kidding, we're in the middle of negotiations, and that was I think give him like a 10-day or a two-week extension, which is supposed to kind of end, I think, the start of next week. And so it's kind of an interesting time to realize to think this like, is this anything gonna happen of this? Is this gonna be another kind of like uh I'm pump fanking? And I think one of the things might be is that they they start putting troops on the ground, and I think probably it is some type of island invasion and the UAE thing does sound reasonable. I wonder if they even use like their their ships and stuff like that as kind of a coordination. Is that does that count as them joining the forces? I'm not sure what the what the bet says explicitly, but UAE doesn't have ships. They got they don't have a navy. Yeah, makes sense, I guess.
SPEAKER_01Um but I mean whatever you know what I mean.
SPEAKER_02Like, meaning like if they were to do that, you think it'd be some kind of joint effort, right? With there, it's whatever, whatever level of I don't I don't know what they could bring to the table, but you know, I think Trump probably wants some, yeah. They bought some First and stuff, yeah.
SPEAKER_03F uh the F-16s. Well, I know um, you know, and that was the F 35s, right? When I was talking about sure, but you know, the bets I was talking about, you know, Andrew looked at these strike bets, and again, they were the rules were somewhat exclusionary, where it was mostly a drone or a bombing threat, and it specifically excluded, you know, naval bombardments and you know, small drones, small arms fire, and and even ground troops, right? And it's like I you know, I again maybe ground troops isn't that likely now, you know, thinking about the whole of it. It does seem like most likely it would be some type of strike if they were gonna assist.
SPEAKER_00Um Marines don't want to be hitting the beaches next to Emirati troops. Like they're doing it.
SPEAKER_03They're like, hey, can you can you do a strike as as a show of you know support more than anything, right? It would probably be on the outside. That's what it'll be. It'll be symbolic. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02Well, I think I think again, the really interesting market where it's almost 50-50 right now is US forces enter Iran by April 30th. It's a huge market, 17 million bucks, and the yes is 56%. So the market thinks there's a small, smaller, better than 50-50 chance that we're gonna have troops on the ground. And I kind of after watching tonight, I kind of think that's where it's gonna go, you know. I mean, Trump didn't talk about anything, but he also didn't talk about no, he didn't talk about you know pulling out. He kind of said we've almost I mean, he did talk a little bit about pulling out, but he said two or three more weeks uh minimum.
SPEAKER_00Um he also said he uh he didn't say he'd keep the straits open, but he also said we're not gonna leave our golf allies hanging in in so many words.
SPEAKER_02Right, which is they kind of have to do one or the other, right? Like if they don't make a deal, if they pull out, like these guys are gonna have to make a deal directly with Iran. They need to be able to get their ships out. And even if they tried to go the other side to the Red Sea, there's Houthis there that could potentially start firing as well.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, and I mean this is again, if we're looking at the US forces enter Iran by X State, you know, you're talking, I think, talking about more around that April 30th bet. You know, it's at 59, 56%. December is at 67, right? So you can always take that more long-term safer bet for not that much of a difference in return. If you're looking at this market, you think it's likely there's gonna be some type of true entry.
SPEAKER_02That seems really reasonable, but I guess uh what really what if the market's telling you is that they think this is if this is gonna happen, it's gonna happen within the next month, which kind of makes sense. Like these things typically have some type of ratchet function, right? Like, are we gonna ratchet to the next stage or are we gonna find some kind of off-ramp? It doesn't seem likely that this just stays the way it is for the next you know four or five months and then we invade, right? It could kind of be abnormal, at least in a market size.
SPEAKER_03Um, kind of as a you know, another adjacent bet that I don't think we've delved into too much is the sort of hormuz escort bets from the US. It's like we talk about these dangers in the strait, and one of the options that seems to be open to the US is like, hey, just kind of guide along, put your ships sort of in there in place so that nobody's gonna want to make uh a provocative move when it's close to those troops. Do you think that's something that's likely, Andre? I know you had some bets kind of around this.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, why don't you tell us what the market where the market's at right now for it, Andrew, so we give people the sense of because that's another one I know a little about, but but you know, seems like it would be somewhat of a long shot.
SPEAKER_03Um, but go ahead.
SPEAKER_00So I've got no on this. Uh I bought in um around 60, it's now up to 75. So the market thinks that there's a 25% chance that a US uh Navy ship escorts a commercial ship through the Straits of Hormuz. I think that's that's that might be my actually my my the market I like the most uh as a almost a guaranteed winner. There's no way that a US naval ship is gonna go through the Straits of Hormuz just based on the mine threats alone. And these are advanced, you know, no contact, magnetic mines that are very difficult to be swept. And that's not even taking into account that, like Joel said, the the anti-ship missile capability that Iran has. Um, and my understanding is they basically just strap these things on like go fast boats, you know, fiberglass hulls, put some big ass motors on there and zip out to the middle of the strait, and you got an anti-ship mu missile, you can shoot right at uh a navy ship in uh you know, a piece of water that's only like 30 miles across or something, it's not that big.
SPEAKER_02Well, kids, you heard it here first. Mortgage your house, take out everything, get a 25% return in one month.
SPEAKER_00I kind of want to like the more speculative bets. I'm I'm like I have a lot of bets spread out because I like to, you know, have some fun and and throw money on a lot of things. But if I was smart, geez, these invasion bets that sure seem kind of speculative, the UA bets, I would probably sell out and focus on the one thing that I know like can happen, and that's straight traffic returning to normal. Uh, because commercial ships won't go through there and navy ships won't go through.
SPEAKER_02Well, the only way it happens would have to be a full type of ceasefire agreement in which the Iranians and Americans agreed to complete, you know what I mean? Like that's what it has to be. It would have to be a ceasefire deal with straight hormuz, like basically physically, yeah, we're gonna go, we're gonna get rid of all these mines, uh, you know, we'll escort the ships together or whatever the first month to prove that everything's safe, like that. Not saying it's likely. I don't think I think I kind of like the bet. I'm just saying that is the alternative, what could happen to kind of make that stuff happen, I'm guessing.
SPEAKER_00I mean, I I still think you're wrong because even if tomorrow either Trump or Iran basically capitulates and says, we surrender, we'll give you everything you want. Here's your reparation money, Iran, or you know, Iran says the regime is fallen, bring back the Shah. Like either one of those crazy extreme examples, the straits would still be closed because the mines are in the water. I know.
SPEAKER_02And there's no naval You're saying a capitulation, Andrew. I'm saying that it's a deal, right? Like Trump makes a deal, and part of that deal is that no, but the but the traffic, the traffic would return, right? So if you're talking about the traffic, part of that deal, part of that deal would be that you know, you guys have four you have two weeks or whatever to clear all the mines and get X number of ships that you're good. The ships and the insurance still wouldn't take the wheat.
SPEAKER_01I'm trying to get the counter back to a guy. I'm not a good thing.
SPEAKER_00It's easy to push a mine off a boat, right? It's not easy to then go back and pick it up and put it on your boat. Like you can push something into the ocean, you don't that, but that once you've armed it, it's gonna explode if you try and pick it back up. They're not gonna do that.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and and again, I'm just trying to give uh the counter opportunity out. I mean, I get I I like the bets, but there's I'm saying that that would be the I mean you have to assume if there ever was a real type of negotiated settlement like that Trump made was able to make the ultimate deal, you know, no nukes this, but you get to make these drones and missiles, blah, blah, blah. It would include the straight of horror moves and some type of guarantee that it's clear and whatever.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I mean, there's always there's always big risks, it feels like, in in trying to short a market like this, right? Like sometimes we've taken the contrarian view, the the the long shot, but I I would tend to agree that it's like, you know, a ship is not going to get escorted by the US Navy. That just seems unlikely. And it doesn't also seem like the traffic will return to normal, even if tomorrow Trump said, hey, everything's back to normal. I think there there would be a certain amount of hesitance and insurance concerns that would need to be addressed before the majority of the ships would feel comfortable going through.
SPEAKER_00Um so that I mean that makes sense to me, but uh um yeah, I mean the other thing that I think is uh pertinent to this discussion is the extent to which Iran could even A, like make a deal, or B to the extreme, like surrender. Um, I mean I I I've again who knows. I mean I'm I'm no Iran expert as much as you guys joke, but you know, the the talk that comes out of Iran, I think it was an Al Jazeera uh article that I share with you guys, is that and again they've been planning this since the revolution. This is like a boomer revolution, right? Like you guys forget, like this is a boomer generation people that are uh that did the revolution and now they're in their 70s, they've lived this their entire lives, and they've been planning for this the entire time. And the strategy was we're gonna compartmentalize control in the different provinces in the case of a decapitation strike, and uh command and control uh decisions are gonna be made by the local provincial uh uh uh commanders on the ground. And even if he could even if he could negotiate with somebody higher up enough to make a deal, then you have to ensure that the commanders on the ground are gonna follow it. And there's gotta be a like w we know we come from like a religious enough background to know what people are willing to do if they fervently believe these things enough. And it's like it doesn't take many people in the revolutionary Islamic regime who truly believe these things to say, I don't care what the you know speaker of the house says, I'm gonna keep firing my missiles.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I don't know if that's true. I mean, I I again we're not experts here, but I mean, you know, the JPCOA or whatever Obama deal seem to have been essentially followed the whole time. And further, I mean, during this whole war, like they seem to be in some way the more measured force that they are retaliating in kind with strikes, you know, you bomb this, we'll bomb that, uh, you bomb this, you know, and they're they're not doesn't seem to be doing a lot of civilian strikes or anything like that. It seems to be um, it seems like they're trying to be kind of like the measured ones in some degree.
SPEAKER_00Not against the golf targets. Against Israel, they're they're doing like cluster munition drops, but luckily most Israeli civilians have bomb shelters they could the iron. Yeah, it's so hard to name it. It seems like all of the casualties on the ground.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, Demona's the only one where they kind of like admitted to to civilian casualties uh around Demona or something like that. Um who knows? I'm just saying, I'm just saying I think their ideal that you couldn't get a deal done doesn't seem like it's impossible. I think they're I mean, I think if whatever, Vance, you know, Superman comes in and saves the saves the whole thing, that would be uh possible. I think you I think the idea that you can't make a deal with the top and have it play out.
SPEAKER_00I mean, who I don't know Isn't isn't that interesting that supposedly Iran asked specifically for JD Vance to be the negotiation, knowing that he's the who knows what's true, but apparently he's headed to Pakistan to right, like to be part of this.
SPEAKER_02That's what yeah.
SPEAKER_03So, I mean, who knows if they sent it to you, if he's the you know, Warhammer Ford and K deathbringer, uh, that uh the memes seem to suggest, uh maybe they see Vance as the soft hand, you know.
SPEAKER_00I actually I actually sold a good percentage of my Rubio shares, uh, and I think I timed it pretty well because he's way down uh since Iran started to look like the quagmire sure seems like it's shaping up to be.
SPEAKER_02But I don't get how I mean how anyone doesn't I mean how JD escapes from it. He's such a good one. I mean, because he hasn't been involved, right? It's one of those companies where in well he is now, apparently. He's in Pakistan.
SPEAKER_03Sure, but the framing could very easily be going into the 2028 election, like, hey guys, I wasn't super involved. When I got in, I was trying to come in and really promote peace, and and Iran reached out to me specifically because I have this global um you know reputation as a peacebringer. Uh and so I think it could set up um you know Vance. Well, I I agree, Andre, you know, I I didn't get out maybe when I should when I was up like a hundred percent on the Rubio bets. It's only at like 50% now.
SPEAKER_02Um but yeah, I mean Oh, speaking of which, my Tucker bet's up over 100% now. I wish I put a I put a tiny sprinkle. I wish I made it a little bigger, obviously, in retrospect, but it is kind of hilarious.
SPEAKER_03No, I mean yeah. I mean, I don't think there's there's too much interesting going on in terms of the the 2028 Republican election specifically, but something that we also wanted to talk about a little closer to home was the Canadian uh Wait, before we wrap up, before we wrap up by Iran, look, I w I was curious to get you guys on record.
SPEAKER_02If you guys had to pick, well, I think we should should be a new segment, if you had to. You know, if you guys had to pick up, if you and the corner. Let's go. If you if you had to, if you had to put uh a pick aside, do you guys you guys think the troops on the ground by April 30th? That's the closest to the 50-50 bet we have. So I have, yes.
SPEAKER_00Uh I bought it at 66, so pretty late that we'll forces enter Iran by April 30th. And this is forces, right? So which includes special forces. Um include uh any territory that was de facto controlled by Iran at the start of the war. So again, those UAE claimed islands, if they take those in the name of the UAE or whatever, and says this was never really supposed to be Iran's, that would qualify. Um, and of course I got the carga island. As long as it's assisted by the US, yeah. I I don't like it if I'm being honest. Uh I I simultaneously believe that Trump does not want boots on the ground, but that there's no other way to get the straits opened without boots hitting the ground. So that worries me a lot more than the straight traffic or the escort bets.
SPEAKER_02So if you had to euro if you had to.
SPEAKER_01I haven't sold yet. But I'm not. If you have to put money down, if you had to put if you had to put if putting money down right now at 55%, you can't. I'm not re-apping. Yes or no.
SPEAKER_00I'm not re-apping. How's that? I like it that.
SPEAKER_01I I understand you're I understand you're not you're not confident.
SPEAKER_03He's gonna he's gonna whuss out on me if I had to. I'm gonna say that I would do no on that. You do no. There we go.
SPEAKER_01Here we get a little bit more.
SPEAKER_03I I think by end of year is um a better bet. I think at like a 50 or so percent for April, it's I I see more delays. I mean, we talk about the timelines for Venezuela, these other things taking time. I think there's gonna be a lot of hesitance for Trump to put boots on the ground. I think he's gonna exhaust the other options for negotiations and whatever else strikes before he puts boots on the grounds, because I think there's a very big symbolic difference to that for the American people, right? As soon as they're like, hey, we've got our you know, men and women uh in the armed forces now sacrificing their lives more directly. That seems, you know, and this seems like as soon as you put a boot on the ground, you're stuck for years if we look at Iraq and Afghanistan as examples and you know, Vienna or whatever. So, yeah, I mean, I take the no short term, long term. If this drags out, I think it's still, um, I think Trump, like you say, will eventually realize like, hey, I've got to do this, but it just maybe, maybe it's May 1st, right? And that's why I don't like the April for April 30th bet. You know what, Joel?
SPEAKER_02You convince me. If I had to take a bet, I would take the yes, but I think you're right. There is, I think there's better odds doing it December 30th. So I think I'll sell out that position, add it on to December 31st, just in case you kind of get screwed, right? They they and they and kind of like kind of like Andrew with uh Venezuela, you know, he had everything at the end of the year and they invaded three days after. So I think you might as well stretch it out. Um, but yeah, if I had to best bet something, I'd bet the yes. So there we go. We're all on record. Yes, yes, no.
SPEAKER_00All right, let's uh head back to the I mean let's uh let's talk real briefly if you guys don't mind. Uh because uh it sure seems like Trump is doing everything he can to prevent the markets from reacting what I think is appropriately to the mess that he's created in the Persian Gulf. So I have some long-term Bitcoin bets that I think it's gonna dip down to both 45 and 40. Those have gone red just re just lately, uh kind of on the news that the markets sure think that um this is now priced in. Uh gold and silver have dropped since Trump spoke. Oil's gone up. So maybe the the oil market thinks the straights aren't getting sorted out soon, but the market sure seemed to think that the conflict is going to be over soon. So do you feel that this is accurately priced, or is Trump just shining everybody on every couple of weeks?
SPEAKER_03I think part of it is is um, you know, this being priced in in terms of the oil increases. Like I had that, you know, US price or sorry, the crude oil price going up to 120 by the end of March. It didn't work out for me. Uh and I think that's something where the markets have sort of accounted for an increase in oil price that is within a reasonable range. And at the end of the day, um, you know, the markets, I don't think are gonna, you know, a lot of the markets, you know, where they're succeeding, like AI and stuff like that, I don't think they're as dependent on oil, right? They don't need you know, they've got they're standing up their own power plants, they're doing these things to to pull themselves back from a dependency on outside help. And so I think the markets generally, if the big seven are not relying on as much on oil, could still do well. I think obviously there's going to be certain oil industry, uh, you know, SO and stuff that's gonna get affected, uh RAPG, but uh go ahead, guys.
SPEAKER_00But it's not just uh oil that comes out of uh the Persian Gulf. There's uh nitrogen-based urea fertilizer that people need to be buying in the in the northern hemisphere right now. There's helium, which is absolutely necessary for high-end chip manufacturers that are basically going bad sitting on the docks waiting to get shipped to Taiwan, and now they conceivably won't for months. Um there's a lot of inputs that are necessary. Aluminum, there's there's huge aluminum uh manufacturers in the Gulf as well, and not to mention economies like the UK, Australia have weeks worth of diesel fuel. And none of this seems to really price in that any of these problems are gonna be solved anytime soon.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, no, I think it's uh it's interesting because you know there's a lot of allegations, obviously we don't know for sure that you know, that not only is Trump maybe manipulating the market um with his words and with his, you know, hey, go crazy on Friday and say everything's chill on Monday, you know, when the market's open. But as we've talked about in the past, Bessent, you know, crazy macro hedge fund trader. Uh apparently he's allegedly you know using the treasury itself to try to manipulate some of these markets, uh especially with the strategic oil reserve, etc.
SPEAKER_00So um yeah, they might we never we never talked about it because uh I guess uh as Joel forgot to mention, uh it was a semi semi-weekly uh podcast.
SPEAKER_03Uh yeah, yeah, I guess we missed the week.
SPEAKER_02We did miss the week, yeah.
SPEAKER_00But right before he came out with his big uh announcement that he was gonna delay his ultimatum or whatever, you know,$1.5 million in calls on the SP 500 and all these puts on oil.
SPEAKER_02Uh I mean Which do you think about Heg Seth trying to buy? I don't know if that's true, but apparently Heggseth tried to buy some like shares in defense stocks right before they invaded and it didn't work out well or whatever. It's like, you know, the corruption levels are pretty open and obvious, but it's pretty bad.
SPEAKER_00It's like, I mean, part of the reason that Trump got in was because the corruption had gotten so bad and under Pelosi and all these, you know, all these Congress people who who who make their fortunes solely on insider trading, and Trump seems to have uh instead of taking the lesson that hey, like, hey, you're not we we elected you because we don't want you to do that, he's like, Well, I get to do it, but way more blatantly and and and and brazenly and openly.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that's what I always told you guys. Like the reason they hated Trump because it's not because uh he's doing this stuff, is because he's just so much more obvious, you know. The Clinton stuff was always backroom deals through their foundation, you know, it's just uh less less obvious, you know? Uh but yeah, I think I think it's interesting we're talking about Bitcoin and gold uh specifically, because you know, Bitcoin, for example, often trades as with other risk at essentially it's like kind of normally trades with the NASDAQ. But the allegation from you know Bitcoin believers has always been that one day it will trade separately, more like a uh emergency reserve act, like like gold often does. And it'll be interesting to see if this is ever the time it flips. Like we, you know, when you start talking about um them transacting in Bitcoin, you know, for these transfers for second deaths, that is kind of the big play because this whole thing is about you know, America typically controls all these markets through sanctions, through you know, kind of their global dominance of the USD. If the petrodollar is essentially ending with this war, and now we're going to some type of quasi yuan, you know, BTC, whatever, as uh a tradable feature of oil, it might go the other way. I mean, I really could see it popping off, so I don't know. But that's me as uh as a believer, so who knows?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I don't I don't know. I I don't see the oil price changing too significantly just because I don't know. I mean, like we looked at some of those like$200,$125 by the end of the month, and I mean historically it's just never gotten there. Obviously, this is a historic event that's going on, but I just I don't know. Obviously, I think I think crypto could be a good sort of um issues, but uh it doesn't have to get to two, it doesn't have to get to 200, you know.
SPEAKER_02If it gets to 120, 130 like that, you know, it's uh what's it at 103 one right now, Andrew? Um, you know, like that, that's gonna really potentially, you know, send the whole world into some level of depression or at least uh turmoil, economic turmoil. So um, yeah, uh it'll be interesting to see how it plays out over the short or long term. I don't have any of these directly financial related bets, but you know, if you're long, there's gonna be keep you in conflict like I am in a few months, then I think all the economic bets kind of go with it. Because yeah, it just makes sense.
SPEAKER_03All right. Well, uh with that, let's take it uh a little closer to home here. Um, for the our Canadian uh and uh fellow Canadians here. We've got uh the Alberta referendum or will a province schedule a referendum uh this year.
SPEAKER_00Just recently there's been some news that uh Alberta has gotten the required number of signatures to have the ref referendum put on a ballot, which would you know certainly um seem to the second referendum to get uh supposedly the requisite number.
SPEAKER_03Right. Um, and but again, that's something where is a question will will this actually get scheduled, you know, maybe later, but will it get scheduled in 2026? That's what that is. Um it's been you know uh down as as much as or as low as 40% recently, and it's recently skyrocketed to you know around 60 or 70 percent based on that recent news that we've just discussed. Do we think this is still an interesting market? Do I you know what uh I mean, at least you know, from from the personal perspective, this is something that we think uh could be interesting. Uh we we certainly are completely satisfied with uh what the federal government in Canada has been doing, and it seems like Alberta has been shortchanged. What are your guys' thoughts on this, generally speaking, and and the markets themselves?
SPEAKER_00So Danielle Smith, uh who I believe is I think I saw it was her birthday today. Uh the premier of Alberta has already scheduled a referendum for October. Now, as of right now, there is no sovereignty question on the ballot. It's a bunch of sort of intermediate questions in my mind, like, oh, should Alberta have more control over immigration? Should Alberta have more control over uh you know, healthcare and different different different sort of intermediate questions, which allows Alberta to further exert its sovereignty over how things are done in the province. And the way that I've read it from when Daniel Smith has spoken is that if a referendum, she says if a referendum gets enough signatures, it could be on the ballot. Now, there's already been one referendum that's received enough signatures, uh, but that was a question uh proposed by people who want to stay in Canada. But and of course, the a lot of the fight is how the crest of the question will be phrased. Do you want to phrase it in a way that will make people want to answer the way you want to answer it? And that second question or second referendum uh that supposedly has got enough signatures now to make the odds pop 20% um in the last week or so, it sure seems like she's said that we will put the question on the ballot. And also I saw they made a law that you don't have to uh respond to these referendums within the period, the time period that it used to be. So now they have more flexibility in ignoring the referendum that separatists don't like. So I think this is gonna hit the ballot. I think it's gonna hit the ballot this year. And you think we're gonna have a vote this year to leave in October? I think she's gonna put it I because I don't think she wants to leave. And I think that's why she's muddled the water, muddy the waters by adding those extra questions. So now will be four questions about hey, do you want Alberta to have more control over a bunch of things that you don't like about the way the the shape of things are where they're going? And then the fifth question will be, and do you want to leave?
SPEAKER_02And I'm like, why do you why do you think she doesn't want to leave? Because I I got the impression, uh, especially you know, when Trump first got elected, kind of during the transition period or whatever, you know, they're down there. Her, Kevin O'Leary, other people, it seemed like they were, you know, they already have a large amount of backing potentially from American backers, as well as potentially uh America essentially agreeing that if you vote for it, we will immediately recognize you as a sovereign territory. And I just I guess in my mind, she was trying to do her best to look neutral, but in the back of her mind, she did want to separate. But I I could be reading the two leaves wrong.
SPEAKER_00I I see her as a a Trumpian figure in a lot of ways. Um, I mean, she comes from a media background, my understanding. And, you know, the way she came up with the Wild Rose Party, which was a you know a far right party that then merged with the you know more centrist conservative party to form a pretty far right party in Alberta. I don't think she wants that smoke is is the ultimate answer. It's just because like I don't think Trump Trump wouldn't wanna wouldn't want all that work. I don't think she wants all that work. I don't think she's that competent an executive. And I mean my understanding, uh premiers in Canada have a lot more control over uh the the territories, you know, the the provinces that they control than governors do over states in uh in in the USA. I don't think she she she likes the control she has now. She wouldn't really gain more control, you just gain more headaches. I think she'd rather be of you know one of the most powerful dukes uh in in the country uh rather than trying to be king.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I mean it's interesting you say that, because that's again, I'm not uh experienced uh necessarily with the US system, but I I would have imagined that pro provinces have, you know, they have their own health care, and there's certain things that are sort of by our Canadian Constitution delegated to provinces, but it seems like there's more for the states, right, where they're like, hey, we can make a decision on, you know, personal state decision on things like you know, abortion and stuff like that, whereas Canada, that's much gonna be much more federally controlled. Um, and and you're right, I mean, it it matters a lot even in terms of the bet here, in terms of how the question is phrased on the referendum. Because if you had a question where it was, do you want to stay in Canada, I think that probably wouldn't qualify for this bet. Or there's a chance, right, that it doesn't qualify um, you know, for a yes, if they're like, you know, because any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence sets a framework for independence or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. But the question of staying in Canada, I don't think necessarily would. Again, I'm I've I've been burned on these uh lawyerly readings before, but what are your guys' thoughts on on the wording there and and and whether or not you think it's still actually likely?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, it's interesting because I thought I thought she was putting those questions on the ballot to set it up for next year, essentially, by giving them any more weight, even more like kind of uh bargaining power with Carney to say, hey, uh, we're demanding this, this, and this. And if all those things get shut down again by the feds, then she can turn around the next year and say, okay, well, now we actually got to leave. But maybe maybe I'm just being a little optimistic because that's kind of what I was I was hoping.
SPEAKER_03Again, if we're talking next year, you're saying, I mean, if that's her setting up for 2027, then that makes this bet maybe not as um as tasty. You know, maybe we're looking to get out with our current profits and kind of leave it where it is.
SPEAKER_02Oh, I s I yeah, I guess I still assumed that it would it would be scheduled, right? Because I'm not sure when the uh like the the the Quebec referendum was. I assumed it was you know months ahead of time that because these things, but maybe I'm wrong there too.
SPEAKER_03I I I forget I was yeah, I mean there's there's a lot going on in Alberta in terms of bills too, right? Like this isn't the only thing going on. If anything, as far as Daniel Smith is concerned, this is probably a low priority, right, in terms of getting this on a ballot anytime soon. And like Andrew said, they've given themselves more leeway to maybe not respond right away.
SPEAKER_02I mean, in some ways, it's the biggest question ever. Like, are you leaving the country? But you know, the biggest priority ever. But I guess that's only for some.
SPEAKER_03But the question um the question between stay and leave is the different difference of this bet, even though we know it means basically the same thing, right?
SPEAKER_02Sure. Um, I still like to bet. You know, we're we got in in around in the 40s, so we're up a decent amount. Uh I I think I'm just gonna hold on for the rest of it. Um I don't know if you guys have any more thoughts or if we should just wrap her up. Let's call it a week. All right, well, yeah. Good pod boys. Thanks for sharing. I guess we're gonna see uh how much this stuff pops off by uh next week. We might see some troops on the ground or some other craziness, and we'll be back to talk about it.
SPEAKER_00World War III, economic ruin, or join us.
SPEAKER_03Episode 26 will be, I'm sure, a glorious uh victory left for us based on the Iran stuff here. But if not, then we will be back with our weekly reminder, hopefully this next week, about uh predicting the future here.
SPEAKER_02We will record it from you.
SPEAKER_00Thanks, guys. Have a good one.