#26. Blockade Squared

Ep. 26 opens with a rare mix of victory laps and bruised portfolios. Andrew nails the “US troops entering Iran” market after a dramatic pilot rescue mission inside Iranian territory, while the rest of the board is licking wounds from the surprise ceasefire announcement that nuked their long-held no-ceasefire positions. The ceasefire is technically holding—for now—but with immediate violations, a US blockade around Hormuz, and zero trust between parties, the guys debate whether this is real de-escalation or just a pause with better PR.

They pivot back to their favorite indicator: Strait of Hormuz traffic, arguing that even with a ceasefire, mines, insurance risk, and now US enforcement mean shipping flows are nowhere near normal. Andrew doubles down on “no normalization” bets, while Matt zooms out to ask the bigger question—are markets right that this all resolves within months, or are they massively underpricing how messy this could still get?

From there, it’s a broader reflection on negotiation dynamics. Is Trump actually cracking something previous administrations couldn’t—forcing ideological enemies to the table through sheer escalation and threat? Or is this just another temporary patch that unravels the second incentives shift? The crew debates whether a “permanent peace” deal is even plausible in the timeline markets suggest, with most leaning skeptical despite improving sentiment.

They close on macro confusion: oil markets refusing to behave logically despite massive supply disruptions, and a quick check-in on the AI bubble, where absurd pivots (yes, even shoe companies to data centers) collide with very real constraints like compute and energy shortages. The takeaway: nothing is pricing cleanly, and conviction is getting harder—not easier.

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

Well, I'm trying to I'm trying to sell my alien bets right now, guys.

SPEAKER_00 0:05

Why? Because there's no aliens. Yeah. You realize it was a psyopic.

SPEAKER_03 0:11

But did we go to the moon, man? That's the real question. I I can we pass through the Van Allen belts and could we do it in the 1960s? Can you answer that question?

SPEAKER_02 0:23

I think we went to the moon and I think we did it. 100%. I love it. Actually, 100%'s too 100% is too high. Um, and then I think they destroyed the technology, and I think I think the videos are fake. What tech? What tech? What tech? What tech did they destroy? The special zero point energy tech. Okay, I'm sorry. Welcome, everybody.

SPEAKER_03 1:04

So take a big deep breath. Uh big deep breath. Get ready for the episode. Here we go.

SPEAKER_01 1:13

Polymox pocket.

SPEAKER_03 1:15

Welcome to episode. Let's go, baby.

unknown 1:18

Polymox pockets.

SPEAKER_03 1:19

Yeah, let's go play. Let's go live. Come on. Polymox pockets.

unknown 1:22

Polymox pockets.

SPEAKER_03 1:23

All right. Welcome everybody to episode 26 of the Polymarks Podcast. I am your host, Joel, here with my brothers Matt and Andrew. This is your semi-weekly reminder that uh betting on the future is easier than predicting it. We've got a nice week lined up this week. Uh, unfortunately, we're gonna have to recap some losses, but we also got some wins in Iran. We're gonna be talking about some of the other markets that we still are think are still interesting. Ceasefire, some of the straits bets, things around oil. Uh, and then we're gonna talk a little bit more about the markets generally, and then we'll have Andrew give us the update on the IAI bubble burst. But Andrew, why don't you start with the the recap of the win, the positive here, where you saw the the bet here ahead of time.

SPEAKER_00 2:07

Yeah, uh well, maybe uh real quickly, we can just talk kind of state of Yeah, it was a quick recap on some ground last two weeks in voice. Um yeah, so we're recording on Wednesday the 15th. Uh as of right now, the ceasefire, which was announced on the 9th, I believe. Uh, is still holding true. Uh Trump has now blockaded the Straits of Hormuz. Uh more like uh the the Arabian Sea just passed uh the Straits of Hormuz. Uh so blockade on blockade. Blockade. It kind of makes sense. I never really thought about it.

SPEAKER_02 2:56

But he's basically saying, like, okay, part of the ceasefire was that you opened the straits, but you know, the whole thing went with Lebanon, and apparently they were trying to close him down, whatever. And then he can just say, okay, well, if we blockade it, then technically everyone's kind of following along, and we can buy some more time to kind of figure this out, right? I mean, it's kind of seems like what's what's going on.

SPEAKER_00 3:18

But, anyways, before all that happened, um I and I think you guys might have had some money on this market too. Um, I had will American troops enter Iranian territory, which uh for the purposes of this market, it was determined that they did. Uh when they when they did that pretty amazing uh was it Easter morning, they they finally got him back. Um the F-15 uh pilot and navigator weapons officer was on uh was on the ground in Iran. Um I mean there I I haven't read a ton about it, but I'm not sure if you guys want to talk. But I mean they're gonna make a movie of that someday, for sure. The the the the sheer amount of effort and equipment and dollars and everything that Americans burn through in order to save uh you know two down pilots, I think it really speaks to I mean, at a certain point we all talk about like, hey, why like why would why why do people fight for their country?

SPEAKER_03 4:37

Well, regardless of maybe the reasons, but I would want to fight for an army that was willing to do that for me and or uh you know I mean my my brother uh yeah, I mean I I saw some commentary on this, and it was funny to me where it was like it was talking about this rescue, and it's like, well, if you don't understand, you know, may why America would spend hundreds of thousands of dollars and you know, risk mil millions, hundreds of millions.

SPEAKER_02 5:05

I was gonna say it's not it's not sure. They lost multiple ships.

SPEAKER_03 5:08

So it's like millions of millions and why would they risk all these lives just for one person's life? Then it's like you don't understand why America is who they are. And you know, I mean their point was like, frankly, like, well, we don't want you here. Uh, you know, it's like you don't appreciate why why America cares about this stuff and and is willing to go to war for it.

SPEAKER_02 5:30

Well, here comes conspiracy math. There was a conspiracy mat. I've never heard of this this man before. There was a decent amount of reporting that it was actually an attempt to recover the the enriched uranium.

SPEAKER_00 5:43

Quote unquote reporting. Yeah, was it actually reported by actual news outlets or was this uh homies, it's Mahomes in Tucker Foundation out there.

SPEAKER_02 5:56

Ron Ron Ron Paul did a whole episode on uh on his podcast about it, and I trust Ron Paul. Ron Paul is 90. But I trust I trust Ron Paul. I trust Ron Ron Paul more than CNN, I'll tell you that. So I'd have no idea. I'm just saying there was reporting. I mean, if that was true, I mean obviously.

SPEAKER_00 6:12

I mean, but come on. The the the the amount of uh resources, manpower, aircrafts that would actually be needed in order to recover the like we're talking about like going to Ford O and recovering you know the the enriched uranium.

SPEAKER_02 6:32

Wait, we know it's down there. Hold on a second. That's the whole point. There were there was like five or six ships and a couple of them got shot down. So like that's that's what they're alleging was actually was an attempt to recover.

SPEAKER_03 6:46

That's a prolonged operation, right? That's not like we're trying to pull a guy out. That's like we need to you know dig in or extract or root out the defenders and like I'm not saying guys, I we don't know what happened.

SPEAKER_00 7:00

It's the reporting, it's way too early, it's way too early. It's way too early for the report comes up to be doing the last on the document. Okay.

SPEAKER_02 7:11

Again, I was just just letting know people know about the alleged reporting. That's all there is.

SPEAKER_00 7:18

Well, okay, but uh after after an early win to begin last week, uh all of us, I think, had some pretty nasty losses uh after Trump uh announced a ceasefire, and then it was confirmed by the Iranian foreign minister, I want to say. Might have just been some guy on Twitter, who knows, but uh somebody with enough cred to satisfy the uh the UMA whales uh agreed to the ceasefire, even though the it was violated almost right away uh on both sides, uh, including uh the what I think was the UAE. Maybe we can talk about that later. But um I'm not aware of this.

SPEAKER_02 8:09

Why don't you just tell us now? Yeah, because my bet's not performing well. Uh because because I mean I mean I mean it's interesting if you want to start looking at because I mean there's a lot of different ways this could go, but one of the ways is that yeah, we do start seeing some of the Gulf states get more involved.

SPEAKER_00 8:23

So here's what happened on the right after the ceasefire was agreed to, which I think was on the 9th, um Iran uh shot off some missiles uh into the the the Gulf states, uh and uh it was reported, and there's some on-the-ground photography, I believe, uh that an Iranian oil facility was hit by um by jets, by bombs, um, that were mirages, which are French planes that are flown by neither the Americans nor the Israelis. Um, and although nobody's copped to doing this, it sure seems to me like there's some pretty good evidence that it was in fact the UAE that did it. And even if it wasn't, in order to satisfy the market that I'm in pretty heavily, which is will another country join uh the the bombing, even if it can't be definitively proved that it was the UAE, my bet is only that it's another country. Well, consider that it seems like it should be.

SPEAKER_03 9:39

Consider that it was the Iranian mirage planes that just happened to miss their uh miss their targets. I mean, that's possible, right?

SPEAKER_02 9:46

I mean, that's what uh we we can't confirm that it's not Iranian. So right now, will another country conduct a military action against Iran by April 30th? Is that seven percent? And you you like this bet? Like you recently put money on it or you're still holding on. What did what did you get in?

SPEAKER_00 10:02

Oh, I I got in weeks ago at uh 30. So we're down it's we're down a bunch. Quite some quite a bit. But but do we like it now?

SPEAKER_02 10:17

Like would you, if you had it, would you put some more money on this? Like you think if you're getting now in a at a better spot, or what do you think happens in the next few weeks here? I think a couple weeks now up.

SPEAKER_00 10:25

It's again, you can look into the reporting. It definitely was confirmed that those facilities in Iran were hit, and it was denied by both Israel and America that they violated the ceasefire. So again, riddle me that. And they don't add the plan. Like, riddle me this somebody is sure seems I mean, this kind of reminds me a lot of my uh phantom uh you know strike in Venezuela, which never paid out. It I mean, it sure seems like there's evidence, and there's a lot of uh you know back and forth on the chat pages on this market if you want to take a look. But it sure seems like somebody did something to Iran, uh, but if they're not copping to it now, I don't see why they'd be in a hurry to uh violate the ceasefire to pop off again. Again, maybe this this goes back around to uh you know, do we think this ceasefire is gonna hold? And we can open up for a conversation. But um the point is we all lost a lot of money because we all thought that ceasefires were not gonna happen. And uh old Donnie managed to wiggle out of this again. I mean to only only only needed to threaten ending uh a 4,000-year-old civilization or five years.

SPEAKER_02 11:47

Back to the Stone Age, that's all no big deal, guys. We're just uh a little of a threat, nothing too crazy.

SPEAKER_03 11:53

I think where this gets interesting, or at least where there's some interesting action going on, is still around the straights, right? Because and this is, you know, to give ourselves credit, I think this is something that we highlighted on our last episode two weeks ago is like even if there is a ceasefire, and even if they say, well, the straits are open again, you know, business is back to normal, it's gonna take a while to get those mines out. And I think that's the situation we're in now where not only is there the constant threat of hey, we're there's these mines and we don't know exactly where there are. Now we're also seeing in terms of updated news, the uh, you know, the US has essentially blockaded the Strait of Hormos and our uh, you know, impending fears of World War III. It's like while they're blocking the Chinese ships, and the Chinese are like, hey, well, if you block our ships, you know, we consider that uh not a good thing. I don't know if they said act of war specifically, but that that seems to me like uh Andrew, I like your bets in terms of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal, or even the the I have a bet that I took was the no on will 60 ships transit Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30th, right? Because that's a again, according to the port watch, which usually a lot of these Chinese ships is gonna turn off the transponders, which may not uh qualify with the port watch anyways. But what are your thoughts on the straits, Andrew, and where you think the interest is here?

SPEAKER_00 13:23

So, I mean, I've been this has been my favorite market for a while, and it's by far my biggest. I just re-upped it today at uh 20. So the the no is at 25, the yes is at 75.

SPEAKER_02 13:36

Okay, maybe maybe just clarify exactly what what the I bet you're referring to is, Andrew.

SPEAKER_03 13:41

Sorry, you bet that reversed, Andrew. It's it's the seven the 75 on the no, which is what we're interested in, is the the no bet.

SPEAKER_00 13:49

Yeah. So I bet on the no, which is at 75%, and that's basically uh saying, yeah, what's what's the name of that market and what's yeah. The the seven-day rolling average, if it's below 60, it will not qualify as a yes.

SPEAKER_03 14:11

You know, pre pre um, you know, this events happening with Iran. Um, and it doesn't seem like that's like what I obviously got.

SPEAKER_00 14:20

It was actually it would it it was actually closer to uh you know it was it was a hundred plus pre-war, but I mean I guess they say that sixty is normal. Um there have been a couple of days where it's seemingly a few dozen ships have been able to get out um during the ceasefire, but now that the Americans are in turn blockading um uh all Iranian affiliated ships, which like you mentioned, Joel, includes the Chinese ships that throws an another you know sort of spanner in the works. It seems that most of the ships that are western aligned are taking uh a more southerly route, uh kind of clinging to the shores of Oman to try and get through the straits as opposed to taking the Iranian toll route. Uh but uh I mean either way, I I just don't see how anybody's gonna be able to get their collective you know what together to make this be able to happen in the next two weeks. That for seven days straight, there's gonna be an average of sixty ships.

SPEAKER_03 15:32

Well, yeah, I mean, just looking at the port watch, the rolling average has been like four, three, you know, up to as high as maybe seven or eight. But getting to a sixty seems like the safer bet. I obviously decor might be a more risky bet is the you know, the single day will it be the sixty plus? Um, and that's one of those markets where it's like will it hit 50 plus or 40 plus or 60 plus? Um but I I I'm seeing, you know, like a max, like the highest day I'm seeing is, you know, 25, maybe, right? So it it does seem like the traffic is really slowed down, or at least what the metric and the rules are is this port watch site, which you know when the transponders go off or there's some shady dealings go on, may not show up. And so I think there is a go ahead, Matt.

SPEAKER_02 16:30

No, I I think I think these are all pretty good points, and I I think it's a pretty smart, reasonable bet to bet. But let's let's up level this a little bit because I do think at the end of the day, uh straight up her Hermoose traffic is probably the best indicator of whether this thing fully resolves when it's back to you know everything's flowing like normal. And right now you see May, uh end of May at a 59% chance, and June, end of June at a 75% chance that they're back to normal. So um, yeah, like I said, kind of up leveling this. Do you guys like either those bets? Do you like this thing generally to keep going? There's still gonna be problems in two months, because if you do, uh, you know, there's a fair bit upside to three or four times your money. And I think it's definitely not unreasonable to think that this still will be problematic, uh, definitely next month, if not even further.

SPEAKER_00 17:26

I think I talked about this in an episode that didn't actually make it the air. But I talked about how how difficult so many Americans have found it dealing with the Iranian negotiators. I think Trump himself has mentioned this a few times, both in interviews and his tweets, where he's like, oh, these these Iranian guys are, you know, are a little tough to talk to, and and you know, hey, they don't really seem to negotiate on the up and up. And I talked about how the blueprint for how these uh revolutionary regimes uh have figured out how to beat America was established back in the early 70s when they were doing the Paris peace talks uh with uh the North Vietnamese. And they spent a year uh like think about how many people died in a year in Vietnam, and they spent a year just uh arguing over what the shape of the table would be that they would have the discussions at. And revolutionary uh authoritarian totalitarian regimes don't have to worry about uh sentiments of the voters, they don't have to worry about midterms, they don't have to seem reasonable to the UN or any of those councils. Yeah, they don't have the New York Times riding their butt about, you know, hey, it how dare you threaten to end a civilization, even though like Marxism and communism is literally built upon the idea of like, no, we're gonna end civilization as you know it and come up with a new, you know, better communist utopian one. But it kind of blows my mind, because I mean, the there's the old joke or trope about like, oh, let's see how Donnie's gonna wriggle his way out of this one, and then he always does. And as of right now, S ⁇ P 500, all-time high oil, way down. I I I still have a bunch of WTI April bets that are deep, deep, deep underwater. And like you said, Matt, uh the poly market is basically saying, hey, we're confident better than 50% that this is gonna get settled by the end of May. So I guess my question to you guys is uh is the market uh wrong and underpricing this, or did Donald Trump actually just figure out which no other American leader has been able to figure out in the last 50 years, which is like, hey, no surrender, no, you know, uh like on or like ramps of escalation, like going up the escalation ladder slowly, is like, no, actually, we just have to threaten to end your civilization, and they actually come to the table and are willing to sign a deal. Because it sure seems like in the last few days, the talk has been is that the Iranians are actually stepping down from some of their more maximalist um bargaining positions, and if they're willing to step down at all, again, America's the great Satan to them, right? And their crazy regime. So if they are actually willing to step down in the face of a guy who sure is threatening to end their civilization, but I mean, that is what the American military can do. And if they're willing to actually come to a deal and that we can actually figure out how to get this thing sorted out in uh you know a month or two, like what does that say about where American power has been since World War II and its inability to win a war? Because this might actually be the first war that Donald Trump wins for the American people since World War II.

SPEAKER_02 21:19

Yeah, no, I I kind of agree. I mean, the market's basically saying we think they they can figure this out and everything's gonna be back to normal. That's the most likely thing.

SPEAKER_00 21:26

Um certainly not pricing in World War III, put it that way.

SPEAKER_03 21:31

Yeah, and like we like.

SPEAKER_02 21:42

I mean, that's the way that's a lot of people. Sure, but like. Like when you're when you're telling a Chinese vessel that they can't, you know, have freedom of movement in the open ocean, like that is that's a real thing. And like I said, I don't I don't think that's escalating right now, hopefully. Um fingers crossed. What I was gonna say, yeah. Yeah, exactly. I think I mean, yeah, I I do think there's a good chance um that they can get some kind of deal done. Um I think it's what in many ways everybody wants at this point, except for maybe perhaps Netanyahu, who I think maybe has more stronger um demands of what he would like to see in Israel versus even Trump.

SPEAKER_03 22:42

And you have to wonder how all that's gonna work and how much they're gonna tie in Lebanon and what is Israel looking for from Iran, right? Like what are what are they looking for?

SPEAKER_02 22:53

Well they've always they've always they've always wanted regime change, but basically, I mean I mean we've had a regime change.

SPEAKER_03 22:59

We've had at least a a leader change, man.

SPEAKER_00 23:02

We've had a leadership change, but the regime change. Yeah, according to Heggs and Trump, we've had regime change.

SPEAKER_02 23:08

Yeah, they've they've they've killed so many.

SPEAKER_03 23:09

It's basically a new regime, which I mean is not if they're saying they're more compliant, and if that's what we're seeing in reality, then it seems like that is yeah, there's something going on there, right? Like they're having some type of actual positive effect.

SPEAKER_02 23:27

I mean, if if US could settle on some kind of deal similar to the old JPCOA, um, you know, I I think they might be happy at this point, but I don't know if uh Israel would be happy because they still are very much under threat from ICBMs and the terrorist groups around them and all these other things.

SPEAKER_03 23:47

I I I don't I I like what again, what what would Israel what are like if you're talking Israel wants to say like XYZ has to happen, right? Like we have to have a certain agreement from Iran. What what is the what do you think the key differences are from what Israel would be pushing for versus Iran?

SPEAKER_02 24:09

Israel, in my understanding, doesn't view that they can have real suc regional security with Iran being functioning as they currently function today, which is why they've always been advocating for regime change in Iran for so long.

SPEAKER_03 24:25

What if Iran says, hey, we're gonna let the US in, you guys can all come look at everything, make sure everything's chill, like even more secure than the JCPOA, but like that doesn't seem like a particular distinction for Israel. Like, what do you think they're really actually pushing for? Like, what's the like do they want a democratic election, or what what do you think of the changes that they're actually looking for? Or do you can't you or you can't articulate it?

SPEAKER_02 24:54

No, I think oh, I mean, they I mean again, the according to reporting is they don't they never wanted the JPC away and they pushed they pushed Trump to what are the what are the differences that you think they're looking for?

SPEAKER_00 25:07

Uh I mean I mean guys, at a certain point, I mean we're not we're not talking about market here. We're not an expert in that. Yeah, that's fair.

SPEAKER_02 25:13

No, no, I I am trying to talk about the market. I mean, meaning like meaning like again, I I just think it's a complicated situation, obviously.

SPEAKER_00 25:20

Israel is the junior partner in the alliance, so it doesn't really matter what they're I mean, there's different markets versus Israel's strikes.

SPEAKER_03 25:30

Where do you think the angle is not if you think Israel has a different play?

SPEAKER_02 25:35

Um, yeah, I I I guess I in my head there's two things, right? Yes, is is will Israel um you assume they would go along with a deal um if Trump and the them really pushed and said, hey no, no, this is the deal, we gotta figure it out. But you wonder how much of Lebanon and southern Lebanon right now being in there is gonna be a sticking point. Um they my understanding is they've also opened up some type of negotiating framework.

SPEAKER_00 26:04

So you wonder if they basically in my mind of the Lebanese government and Israel.

SPEAKER_02 26:09

Yeah, the Lebanese and the Israeli government. So it sounds like you kind of have again, now you're talking about essentially four different parties all coming to agreement, uh, which is again much trickier, right? The more heads you have in I don't know why you guys are laughing at you guys don't think that's real.

SPEAKER_00 26:24

Like I mean, uh I mean, again, I I think I mean as opposed to what Joe Kent and Tucker Carlson say, Israel is the junior partner, and whatever Trump says goes. And just like there's been lots of reporting that Trump has done things, including the ceasefire, that Israel was not happy with. And just like you mentioned, Matt, Israel was not happy with the original JCPOA, but at a certain point, they're gonna have to just take whatever's offered to them because they don't have a lot of say in what the American president does.

SPEAKER_02 26:56

Um sure. Uh hopefully that's that's that's true. I'm just saying, but especially in Lebanon. Hopefully. No, maybe hopefully fingers.

SPEAKER_00 27:04

Fingers fingers crossed the Jews aren't actually pulling the strings. But uh yeah.

SPEAKER_02 27:09

I mean, I know I'm just saying, especially in like Lebanon and stuff like that. I mean, they seem to be um doing things their own way, which again makes things a little more complicated.

SPEAKER_00 27:16

So uh yeah, you know who's doing things their own way? Uh Hezbollah, uh, which last time I checked was not the sovereign government of Lebanon. And and you know, I and and you really can't claim that like no Hezbollah is an independent freedom fighter when Iran's like, no, actually, we want to make them a part of the this treaty, even though it's a completely different part of the of the area in the Middle East. Like, no, actually they're they're gonna have to five or six parties instead of just four, you know. That's getting real exciting.

SPEAKER_02 27:48

Well, uh, it is a complicated matter. I mean, okay, so the two bets I like. Let's get to the markets. I love it, man. Uh to get back to the bets of the markets, having a little detour, but um I like no meeting uh by April 30th.

SPEAKER_00 28:04

Now, what what are the do we need a picture? What qualifies this as a meeting?

SPEAKER_02 28:09

Um here, let me pull this up right away. Uh basically, Iran and US to meet again. They do have, I think, tentative plans.

SPEAKER_00 28:19

Because again, when they when they when they meet in like Geneva or they meet in Pakistan, they're kind of in the same building, maybe, but they're not meeting face to face. They're like passing notes in between between the Pakistan's.

SPEAKER_03 28:32

Uh in the the legal world.

SPEAKER_02 28:34

Right. So US so US Iran diplicate dip diplomatic meeting by April 30th is quite high right now. It's at 89 cents. So I like the no, uh, which you can get at 12 or 11 cents. That could be a big win.

SPEAKER_04 28:48

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 28:48

Uh yeah. So you're looking about eight times your money. So again, not saying this is for sure gonna happen, but I think there's a lot of ways that this could, you know, even if it just gets pushed back a little bit, not happen. A duplicate meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives, the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding UN Iran relations. Yada yada, yes.

SPEAKER_00 29:10

Indirectly through mediators or facilitators.

SPEAKER_02 29:12

The meeting must be in person, including indirect in-person meetings, and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by consensus of credible media uh media.

SPEAKER_03 29:21

So I mean that's that's I think where it gets interesting, kind of like Andrew talked about, because like, you know, in my job, I deal with mediations where sometimes in a mediation, it's like you don't need you don't see these people face to face. You're kind of you have a mediator who goes between the parties and kind of conveys offers. And in this case, it doesn't seem like it would qualify because there's no face-to-face. I mean, sometimes there's a face-to-face meeting to start that mediation, but no, it's not always the case.

SPEAKER_02 29:48

It said this says the meeting must be in person, but this including indirect in-person meetings. So, like what happened in an Islamabad surely would count.

SPEAKER_03 29:57

But an indirect in-person meeting would be like we're having a Zoom meeting, like directly with each other, we're in the same Zoom room. But the reality is in a mediation, sometimes it's like you come to a Zoom thing and it's like you have your own room, just like you might be in person and you have your own room. The reality is it those people have to be face to face with each other, and there that has to be a reported interaction.

SPEAKER_02 30:20

Right. I guess I guess what we're saying is they have to they have to they have to meet in one one area, like they did just did it in Islam with bad.

SPEAKER_03 30:26

Virtual, virtual an indirect meeting would be virtual or like I understand, but but but um yeah, so I guess that's that's that's my understanding of what the meeting would be.

SPEAKER_02 30:40

And so I guess at 8 to 1, I see lots of ways that that doesn't happen. Um, you know, they they push it back, they demand certain things that someone doesn't want to do before they even engage in a meeting, yada yada.

SPEAKER_03 30:54

So uh it says remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. So it's like you have to have Trump and whoever, or Hegseth and whoever on the Zoom call. It can't just be.

SPEAKER_02 31:10

It has to be like when they said bands, it has to be exactly exactly. It has to be like the Vance thing. So, or or Witkoff and Kushner, whoever, you know, they have to be saying we're going, we're meeting, we're doing this, but even like Kushner would be an indirect meeting, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_03 31:25

Okay, like that's what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_00 31:26

Guys, I don't know why you keep talking about Zoom meetings. It says specifically it must be in-person.

SPEAKER_02 31:32

Yeah, it must be in person. I'm just saying, I'm just saying we're basically betting that there's not gonna be an in-person meeting. So uh I think that's very possible to not happen. I like it an eight to one on money. I put a decent little nibble down. Um again, it they they reported to be working on these things. I think there's a good chance they do get a deal, but you know, is do I think better than an eight to one chance that it doesn't happen? Yeah, I do.

SPEAKER_00 31:56

One of the ones I talked about a couple weeks ago, which I still like and still very juicy, uh, is will a US uh ship escort uh uh like a US Navy ship escort a commercial ship through the Straits of Hormuz by the end of April. I certainly don't see that happening. Um again, considering that would either involve sailing very close to is is uh Iranian territory or sailing through the the shipping channels, which again, as far as we know, our mind uh I said I shared it with the group chat the other week, uh where I ran, whether or not this is a bargaining position or not, says, uh yeah, we don't have the the equipment necessary to demine the straits because yeah, it's easy to push a mine off a boat, it's not that easy to pick it back up and put it back in your boat.

SPEAKER_03 32:53

Well, and and you're also relying on their maps, or they're like, hey guys, I promise the mines are over here and you'll be safe if you go over here. And and that sounds okay, but from an insurance perspective, a lot of the time they're gonna say no. Like they're just gonna be like, sorry, guys, you can't go through, you know, questionably mined waters.

SPEAKER_00 33:14

So that one's still at 80% uh that it that it won't happen. So a good 20% you can make here, 25% uh for another two weeks if no US Navy ship escorts a ship through the Straits Purple Moose.

SPEAKER_02 33:31

Um, okay, let's wrap up Iran with one last, you know, uh Matt's new little feature. Uh if you had to pick a side, US Iran permanent peace deal by May 31st, it's at 60%, so it's the closest we have to 50-50 right now. What do you guys if you had to put your money on one of them, what do you guys like?

SPEAKER_00 33:53

So tell us what qualifies as a permanent peace though.

SPEAKER_02 33:56

Permanent peace still refers to an agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which did not include a definitive agreement to end the military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis will not qualify.

SPEAKER_03 34:19

Okay, and what are the what are the odds that we're looking at here? Give us the yes and the no.

SPEAKER_02 34:23

So you're looking, I get uh so the yes by May 31st is at 60%, no is at 41%. So you guys think this wrapped up in a month and a half? The market thinks it's a pretty much a coin toss. If you had to put a dollar down, where would you put it?

SPEAKER_03 34:37

Uh you know, you know, I'll take the legal angle first. Just in terms of it seems like that would be somewhat similar to a ceasefire, right? In terms of, hey, we're agreeing not to do this stuff. So where it seems to be sticky is whether or not that's permanent, right?

SPEAKER_02 34:56

And it's like Well, again, it doesn't have to be it, it doesn't actually have to be permanent, like you know, right there's a countries could fire a bomb.

SPEAKER_03 35:08

And like it's exactly like is it a ceasefire, like the war is still on, but we're just holding off, or is this permanent by main Well the whole idea of this right?

SPEAKER_02 35:18

The whole idea of the ceasefire was hey, give us some time, you know, we're gonna keep discussing, we're gonna try to come to a permanent resolution to the situation, and now we're trying to bet of whether we think it's gonna happen in the next six weeks.

SPEAKER_03 35:30

Yeah, I don't see it, I I would still take the no. Partially because, you know, six weeks, we talk about this, it's like that's a relatively short period of time, things take time, and that's also the slightly higher bet, right? If you're talking about the 41%, I'd rather take that. But what's your thoughts, Andrew?

SPEAKER_00 35:48

So this kind of goes back to a couple things we already talked about today. Um, the one being the the JCPOA, and that was not a peace deal, or at least uh seemingly not one that would qualify for this market. Well, it wouldn't be permanent, right?

SPEAKER_03 36:09

Like they that's time limited for most of those things, right? So even then saying it's permanent is a very specific. No, no, but it's strong.

SPEAKER_02 36:17

Listen, the JCPOA was a 10-year agreement. This is just a permanent. I know, but this is just an agreed permanent end to the current hostilities. This is not saying we're never gonna, this is not creating a security deal, we're never gonna fight again. We're saying they have to use the permanent, or how does that work? Okay, I got we're fighting over language too much. Like we're just trying to think of whether they're whether they're gonna come out with a deal or not. Is it gonna get it done? Is Donnie gonna come out of the dust.

SPEAKER_00 36:38

Ultimately, that that is what we had to fight about, and that's the thing that maybe Sharps are actually good at with poly market, is like you don't trade the headlines, you actually look at the specific language of the market. But, anyways, my point was to say is the JCPOA was not a permanent peace deal between Iran and the US. It was actually signed by like China, France, Germany, Russia, UK, EU. Like it was it was signed by a whole bunch of it was it was a nuclear deal. And I think there are some um some markets that deal with the nuclear deal, but it was not a permanent peace deal. And I the other thing I wanted to get back to is like again, if uh Trump is able to do this, that would be the most groundbreaking, ground shatter like earth-shattering thing that has ever happened. Because since the very beginning of the Iranian regime, uh when uh the original Ayatollah uh Komeni uh first came up with the idea that America's the great Satan and Israel is the little the lesser Satan or the little Satan or wherever it is, which you know that was like back in like what when the revolution was taking off in 1979, he came up with this concept. If the Iranian uh revolutionary regime that was created by that man 50 years or 45 years, whatever it is later, uh says actually we are gonna sign a permanent peace deal with you, what does that say about uh the Iranian revolutionary regime? Or what does that say about all the fights that uh America's had with these heavily, supposedly ideologically committed enemies, whereas you know, America doesn't really have that much of an ideology whereas where these people do. So what does it say if they're able to get that done? And you know, long story short, I think my answer is going to be I know, I don't think they are able to get this done. But again, if Donnie's able to wriggle out of this and get Iran to put on paper we sign a peace treaty with the great Satan, well then, like, what have we been doing here for the last 70 years? Because apparently what we should have been doing is what Donald Trump has been doing this entire time, which is shit talk people on Twitter and again and threaten to end their civilization.

SPEAKER_02 39:05

Yeah, so uh uh interesting.

SPEAKER_03 39:09

I think it kind of makes sense in terms of like the don't negotiate with terrorists and the like we're you know, we're willing to go to whatever ends are necessary, and I don't think that's what the stance is.

SPEAKER_00 39:21

It actually makes more sense in my mind with the the analogy which I like, which is the the mafia one, which is Trump foreign policy, he acts like a mafia don, which is you know, they always say, Hey, we don't want to have a war, and then they go to war, they go to the mattresses, they off a couple of people. And I don't want to do this, but you force my hand. I don't know what to do. No, but like it's a great accent, Joel.

SPEAKER_03 39:48

Yeah. I really nailed it. I've I've done an Italian accent on stage a few times. I really am professional.

SPEAKER_02 39:54

I heard it.

SPEAKER_00 39:55

But like, but what what what what happens at the at the meeting, right? Where they reconcile. Like somebody, somebody, a third party guarantees the meeting, they sit down, they they they they they say a couple percentages here, couple of deals there, everybody kisses and makes up because that's what they do, right? And if Trump can negotiate these kinds of things in that way, which is say, hey, we're not fundamentally opposed in ideology. I'm not the great Satan to your great Islamic Republic. We're just a couple of people here trying to make some money, let's kiss and make up. If he can do that, again, what does that say about what we've been doing with American foreign policy for the last you know, or all of Western policy for the for at least for my lifetime, because it sure seems like democracy down the people's throats and it's gone horribly wrong and we've created a lot of uh well maybe maybe we can kind of take this guy's to the to the broader to quick wrap up, to quick quick wrap up my I actually think I would if I had to put money down, I'd put them down and I'm making a deal.

SPEAKER_02 41:03

Um and it's weird because I I I guess in my mind the the two weeks is like, oh, I like that bet because you know it's even if they extend two weeks, like we might not get the deal right away. But it it does they do have a lot of pressure right now to figure this out short term rather than long term because otherwise you're just opening things right back up without the ceasefire. So if I had to put a dollar down, I put a yes. I don't feel strong enough to actually put a dollar down, but that's right.

SPEAKER_00 41:29

Why would it why would I do May 31st though when April 30th is you know, the no is 64, so if I can still make 50% of my money, this isn't gonna happen in the next two weeks. Do you think there's any chances it's gonna happen in the next two weeks?

SPEAKER_02 41:43

Well, again, I was this was this was Matt's new segment he tried to create where we say best one. What would you do? I know. I just tried to take the coin flip, and I don't know if you guys remember last time we did the I ran to enter, and me and Joel said yes. Andrew said no.

SPEAKER_00 41:59

No, I said no red. I said yes, I'm holding my bets. I don't know.

SPEAKER_02 42:05

He wouldn't bet a new one if you said he said no to it. He said no to a new dollar. He said they'd go the other way. So I mean it's not a big barely.

SPEAKER_00 42:13

It barely qualified in the and and this in the ceasefire was the next one.

SPEAKER_03 42:17

I guess yeah, well, let's let's take it to the broader markets here, guys. You know, another thing that we've kind of talked about is oil prices. Andrew's obviously, I think, been the most involved in these in these markets, and then obviously that goes to the broader S P 500 and the you know markets more generally. But what are your thoughts, Andrew, in terms of oil, the markets, how things are responding to what's going on in Iran?

SPEAKER_00 42:43

I I again uh it the these last two weeks have made me question a a whole lot of everything that I feel like I know about how the markets work. I mean, we were talking about half a billion barrels of oil that in the last month and a half have not been getting to market through the Straits of Hormuz. And that's not even taking into consideration everything that's been happening in Russia with Ukrainians uh very successfully uh knocking out uh Baltic oil facilities next to St. Petersburg, and I just saw today they're also taking out like um pipelines in Central Asia, uh where where Kazakh oil uh flows through the Caspian Sea. There are so many uh pressures being applied uh to the oil market, uh including I I saw today uh one of Australia's two refineries. They only have two refineries in the entire country. Like Alberta has more refining capacity than the entire country of Australia, and one of them was on. Fire today. I don't understand how oil can be down, I guess is my point. Uh in the last two weeks, real you know, relative to where we were we were when we were last talking about this.

SPEAKER_03 44:14

I mean, I think part of it is is the American assertion, like, hey, things are back to normal. And part of that is we see a lot of reporting of, hey, there's 120 or however many ships heading to the Gulf of America, Gulf of Mexico.

SPEAKER_01 44:30

Be nice if they're heading to Canada. Oh yeah. That's that's illegal. We're not allowed to do that. You're not allowed to do that.

SPEAKER_02 44:39

The shore is uh it's uh against the root loss.

SPEAKER_03 44:42

But they're all going to the Gulf of America to get filled up. And again, that you know, for a lot of these countries, it is a pricing decision. And what's you know, the price of hey, we can get filled up in America, we gotta go an extra twelve hundred, you know, fifteen hundred, five thousand kilometers, whatever it is, um, but versus well, we can't we literally can't get into the strait where we know the cheapest oil is. Obviously the the oil markets are saying, hey, we think that's gonna remain relatively normal with the supply from Russia in America or whoever else.

SPEAKER_00 45:18

But but I mean again, we're talking about you know, in a in a world where the we as a as a species burn up a hundred million barrels of oil a day. And when again a good percentage of that, 10, 15, maybe 20 percent of it is not flowing the way it flowed a month and a half ago.

SPEAKER_03 45:44

I I yeah, no, I get I get why you you would be like, why isn't the price going up? The supply has gone down. I went to economics class, like, hold on a second.

SPEAKER_00 45:54

No, but like I mean to to to go back to like econ 101, where it's like, hey, gasoline is a very like has a very inelastic demand, right? Like people need to get to work, people need to do their jobs, everything needs to keep on ticking. Yeah, and in the oil markets, I really wish we could have our our brother-in-law on to talk this, but uh uh in the oil markets they talk about it. Yeah. But they talk about like we need to destroy demand, i.e., we need to convince uh 10 to 20 million barrels of oil worth per day, per, you know, for the world, 10 to 20 million barrels of oil, people just have to say, actually, I'm gonna take the bus, or actually I'm gonna walk, or take my bike, or what have and and the only way to destroy that demand is when prices go high enough that people make the decision not to burn fossil fuels.

SPEAKER_03 46:54

Well, I I I think the the the consideration that you have to look at is the strategic reserves, right? There's a lot of countries where they they hold a certain amount of strategic reserves for just these types of situations, right? Where maybe they can reduce their demand, at least on a national level, because it's like, hey, we can supplement that with a certain amount of our um, you know, national supply that we've sort of held on to. And it's really hard to get that stuff to market. Like sure, but you're just holding that nationally, right? Like if you like one of the countries I think, like I think is Japan or Korea who has really done a good job of saying, hey, we have this national supply so that when shit hits the fan, I'm sure they wouldn't use it on a normal day, and they would never use it on a normal day, which is why it's an inelastic demand normally. But in a shit situation like this, they will probably release some of the strategic reserves which will release some of that um you know pent-up demand or um, you know, concern in the in the in the short term. Obviously, that's like six months down the road, shit will hit the fan, inevitably, because those strategic reserves will run out.

SPEAKER_02 48:04

Okay, I mean I think you guys have some interesting points. Um, Andres, I know you're down big here in your oil markets, because like you said, they've been going against you. Is there a current market you like? I mean, looking at the end of June, there's still a possibility. I mean, they still think there's a 6% chance oil hits a 200 bucks uh by the end of June. So um is there any certain market, Sandra, that you think uh there is some opportunity? Basically, I mean it does make sense. If they we don't get this thing figured out with the whore moves uh over a longer timescale, the market has to go up. These things are short-term remedies, generally speaking.

SPEAKER_00 48:45

Well, I I guess that's the ultimate question is and there's certainly lots of evidence that Trump has spent this entire war basically, uh maybe not job owning, but like basically trying to talk the markets down by saying, Oh yeah, we're we're you know it's always two weeks, right? Two weeks to to Obamacare replacement, two weeks to everything, two weeks ease fire, but two weeks, and we'll have this whole thing straightened out, and the markets react accordingly, and uh Trump insiders make billions. But I mean, maybe he's again just trying to talk the markets down, talk uh a big game, and actually, you know, there's no chance of this getting done behind the scenes. Uh, but regardless, yeah, my April bets are getting hosed either way. Um I I don't know at this point. Like, yeah, like I don't I don't I don't know how the oil market works. Uh I I I I've listened enough to people like I talk about John Conrad and and there's uh Sal Ricogliano, but I really like guys who know the merchant marine, guys who know like what it takes to sail these um these choke points. Um they've convinced me, hey, yeah, rolling average of sixty sixty ships, that's definitely not gonna be happening in April. I'm hard pressed to see it happening for May, but you know, that's uh that the market's against me on that one. But I'm not sure where you know where we would have to be to get$200 barrel of oil in end of June, but yeah. Uh it's not gonna happen in April, it seems like.

SPEAKER_03 50:35

Yeah, I mean it that that I think is part of it, is just these countries have these strategic reserves for just these types of situations where it delays that inevitable spike, right? I think if if nine months from now we had no resolution and and the straits were still blockaded, I'm sure that price would skyrocket. I wouldn't, I don't necessarily see it going to$50, you know,$200. Because even in my mind, if we're talking about a 20% reduction in supply, and the the max the world has really ever seen is$125 a barrel, that's really you know, you're really only hitting like$150,$160. So, you know, obviously that could change, but it it seems like the America is like, hey, we're willing to produce more supply, uh, you know, at a maybe a slightly different price, but not not that$200 a barrel.

SPEAKER_00 51:26

Yeah, I mean it's it it's interesting, uh listening about oil uh infrastructure in the Gulf. And like we we talked previously about the the Qatar gas infrastructure and how that could be offline for years. But I mean there's also all the oil fields in Iraq that I believe have been shut down. And it's like once you shut down production and the well stops flowing, it's not like uh you know, like like a shale uh well that you can just kind of keep you know keep going after you shut it down. Like these things will take uh months, if not years, to either get going again or even worse, having to redrill the well uh in order to get the oil flowing again. Like even if the straits are open, the the again 20, 15, 20 million barrels of oil that uh is uh that was going through the Straits of Hormuz on a daily basis, uh that's not going to be there, even if all of a sudden ships can make that navigation. There's just not the oil facilities that are undamaged to get all that going.

SPEAKER_02 52:45

So you're saying maybe you like some longs, right? Like, I mean, that's basically what we're kind of come down to. You're you're saying you're not a professional trader. I guess I that's the way I feel like it.

SPEAKER_03 52:56

I wouldn't touch these markets because I do think um yeah, the the the the short-term stuff seems seems just like way out of our wheelhouse, right? It it would be a long-term bet on hey, this doesn't resolve this. Yeah, your remains long going.

SPEAKER_00 53:11

If I hadn't distraided from which at some point it put it this way, if I hadn't got stung so badly uh within a couple of weeks, maybe I'd have the liquidity to be a little money.

SPEAKER_02 53:23

Yeah. Okay, well, let's wrap that up with that. Then anything else you guys wanted to touch? Uh AI bubble.

SPEAKER_03 53:31

Well, I I think the only other yeah, the AI bubble burst was the last one. Maybe Andrew, there at least there's been a big move today. Andrew, I think was this morning interested in 25% uh still on the no, but uh tell us what's going on. A lot of wins these days, boys. A lot of wins. Was it the yes? Hey, well, we're doing big minumbers, boys.

SPEAKER_00 53:52

So, I mean, the reason I bought in today, and and I love that uh the meme from uh Big Short where uh Steve Carell's coming back from Florida after having talked to the stripper, and she's like, I own four houses and two condos, and you know, and and and and my dog also. And he's like, Yeah, it's a bubble, it's a bubble, we gotta sell. Uh but there was the the do you guys see the that it came out today that Alberts, which at one point was uh valued at like four billion dollars when it IPO'd or something, which is it there's just a shoe company, right? I think you had some of their shoes or whether the knockoff Alberts, I'm not sure. Uh but they said we're shifting our business model from shoes to AI data center infrastructure to meet with to compete with AWS.

SPEAKER_03 54:52

You know, but the funny thing is I I I clearly saw a derivative meme about this that I didn't even understand, which was they're like crocs has come out with we're doing a data center's right. And it's a it's it's one of those AI data centers, but it's got all the crocs like you know plugins that you would normally put in your shoes, which I'm not a croc wearer, so I don't understand. But uh yeah, that's crazy.

SPEAKER_00 55:14

But honestly, I don't want to talk the the AI bubble thing because it's again a bit of a uh an issue where I think I was training the headlines, and I do think this AI is a bubble. I do think it's gonna burst, but all the all the metrics by which this is decided are very convoluted. Can we actually end or we talk a little bit about Maduro? Um, because that one had an incredible movement today.

SPEAKER_01 55:37

Uh let me let me throw one word on let me throw one word on the uh on the AM on the AI bubble.

SPEAKER_02 55:42

And why I mean I'm not sure if this is the reason, but um, you know, I I spend my 20 bucks a month for my anthropic thing, and it seems like I'm constantly getting throttled trying to do the stuff I'm trying to do. And I think that is right now for the major, what do they call, frontier models, that's the biggest holdup for everything, is that they literally are running out of compute. So I think as long as that's the case, I mean there is a lot of stuff coming out saying, oh, it's creating more complications, you know, with certain businesses than it's actually overcoming and yada, yada, yada. But as long as people are using the the tokens with such demand as they are right now.

SPEAKER_03 56:21

And and and so many companies are making these really long-term plays, right? Like these aren't, you know, one or two year plays. A lot of these companies are like, hey, we're expecting five years from now, six years from now, seven years from now, these companies will still be demanding the same chips that we're producing now.

SPEAKER_02 56:39

Everyone thought Altman was crazy because he wanted to spend whatever, how many billion over the next few years trying to ramp up Stargate or whatever. But it seems like if he was able to get these things up, they would they'd be in full use right now. Like that is the biggest struggle for these frontier models, is they just they're literally running out of compute. So um yeah.

SPEAKER_00 56:58

Well, they're also running out of like electrons too. Yeah, energy and the yeah, that's the other problem. I mean that the energy is. But also it's there there's public uh support issues. Like, have you guys seen that? Like basically, I think AI is underwater now with uh, or maybe it's data centers are underwater with the public, but the number of people who would not want a data center in their backyard of course very high.

SPEAKER_03 57:25

Yeah, but I mean that's that's classic NIMBYism, right? Like nobody wants a data center. Like there, there's these things where they're like, oh, I I could smell already and taste it in the water that this data center was nearby. And it's like, guys, they just built it yesterday, like yeah, or that they haven't even like launched it. Sure, but what do you got to find? The public is stupid on these.

SPEAKER_00 57:43

Well, unless you had some guarantees about it. Stupid or not, they're you know, politicians listening.

SPEAKER_02 57:47

Yeah, the public sentiment is I mean, I mean if they were to change, if you were to just throw down all the data centers you wanted and just keep the grid as is and not create new energy sources, it would dramatically increase the cost of regular people's energy, right? So that's why they talk about the solution has to be nuclear or on-prem. They basically have to create their own energy because otherwise you're just off the off exactly. Otherwise, you are going to be sucking up a crazy amount. And that's again, we just get back to uh basic economics 101. You're gonna increase the cost forever for your average day Joe. So I mean, there is some reason to not want to.

SPEAKER_03 58:23

I mean, that would this was interesting, like some something that kind of like Sachs talked about on the all-in podcast is that these people, these companies should be basically guaranteeing it's like, hey, we'll put up a data center and we promise your rates won't go up or really they need to contribute.

SPEAKER_02 58:38

That what we think's gonna happen is they're gonna be the first guys to actually make nuclear because they're gonna have to, because uh they'll just build it you know in the middle of Nevada or something like that, in the middle of nowhere, because um that's the only way that they can uh actually have the the need so high to actually start nuclear after however many years of almost no nuclear production in America. Anyways, let's wrap that up, Andrew. You want to do you want to do a lot of things? You want to do Maduro quick? We'll do Maduro. Let's see where Maduro's at next week, and we'll touch on it again. All right, sounds a good one. Yeah, let's see for the next week. All right, boys. Love y'all. Good pod. All right, that boys. Good pod.

SPEAKER_01 59:20

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