Poly Marks
Poly Marks is a humorous podcast where brothers Andrew, Matt, and moderator Joel explore Polymarket’s markets, share their betting mishaps, and debate trends with sibling flair.
Poly Marks
#29. He Said, Xi Said.
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Episode 29 opens with crew breaking down Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping, debating whether he’ll avoid sensitive topics like Iran and Taiwan while trying to land a trade and geopolitical win from a position they argue is weaker than expected. They analyze Polymarket phrase bets, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, China’s growing leverage, and how global energy flows are quietly reshaping the balance of power.
From there, the conversation spirals through unresolved Iran tensions, disputed market resolutions involving UAE strikes, Russia-Ukraine ceasefire controversy, and whether the global economy is sleepwalking into a major oil-driven slowdown while stock markets sit near all-time highs.
The back half shifts into classic Poly Marks territory: Greenland acquisition theories, Cuba strike odds, AI-generated political campaigns, and Spencer Pratt unexpectedly emerging as a serious LA mayoral dark horse. The guys debate whether populist outsider politics, AI media, and collapsing institutional trust are becoming the defining themes of the decade.
Okay, you guys, Jesus, stop eating. I can hear both you guys eating. Like you guys can't be eating in the middle of a podcast. Is it really that fucking hard to just not eat for like the duration of this podcast? Because you both came in while you guys have just been recently eating and were noisy. I fucking text you guys. I'm like, stop eating, and you guys just keep eating the whole time. So, okay. Eat all you guys want right now, have a drink. I'll restart my thought, but like, this is so ridiculous, guys. Honestly.
SPEAKER_02I was muted. I was muted for the record.
SPEAKER_06No, Joel, you came in, you came into talking, Joel, and you could still hear you chomping because you had just taken a snack, okay? So just it's not that fucking hard to not eat in the middle of the podcast. If we're gonna even do this ardently seriously, I think you guys could do that, okay?
SPEAKER_07Fair enough. That's gonna be our cold open. That should be the cold opening.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Welcome everybody to episode 29 of the Polymarks Podcast. I'm your host, Joel, here with my brothers Matt, Andrew. This is your weekly reminder that betting on the future is easier than predicting it. Uh, we've got an exciting week this week. We're gonna talk about the meeting between the China and the US. We're gonna be talking about what Trump might say, Putin, we're gonna be talking about Iran, UAE, Greenland, we're gonna be talking about Spencer Pratt, aliens, possibly, and then we've got a good if you had to line up this week with Cuba. Uh, but let's go first to the uh what will Trump say at the bilateral conference with China? This is gonna be happening as we record about an hour from now. So we're gonna, you know, these markets are are moving already as we kind of go close to that. But what are your guys' thoughts? What do you think the interesting potential uh phrases are we got here?
SPEAKER_04So maybe to set the background a bit, um after getting the pushback once, uh Trump is making his long talked about visit to Beijing. Um because Biden didn't do it at all.
SPEAKER_07Yeah.
SPEAKER_04And supposedly he's brought some of the biggest CEOs, uh, in American businesses with him. Um And um I mean, I think some of the big issues on the agenda for the Americans would obviously be the trade situation. Um wants to get a deal hammered out. Um but also the geopolitical side of it is seemingly something that's not going as well for Trump as Matt you were talking about on the chat today. Um in a lot of ways China's position has been strengthening, A uh due to their uh backing of Russia, um VCV Russia, but also now because of the Iran conflict with the straits uh of Hormuz shut down, they have a lot of energy assets, both uh refined products uh that are sent all over the Pacific, they're able to help out some of these countries alleviate the problems that originated once Iran had shut down the Straits of Hormuz.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, and um yeah, a lot of stuff on the table. You know, we know we assume it's the larger negotiation is are we gonna kind of open up our markets to each other both ways? Do you know what I mean? Are American companies gonna be able to go to China? Are Chinese companies gonna be able to come here? And I think that's what most people assume the deal uh will be kind of structured around. But speak speak speaking, oh sorry, speaking more specifically to the market, and this market is what will Trump say during the bilateral events with Z Jip? So we kind of talked of this a little ahead of time. This means it has to be said in his presence, whether you know they're both at opposite podiums or it's uh I don't know if there's gonna be some type of gala of reporters during a dinner or whatever, but it won't count if he's you know on the plane leaving China talking to reporters. It has to be in each other's presence, which is why my favorite bet. Or at least at that event, right? Yes, which why is my favorite bet is the no on Iran. And I'm sure we'll get back to Iran sometime in this pod, like we always do. Um, but you know, it is the kind of the most sensitive, most situational for the same reason you might think they might not talk about Taiwan or the Uyghurs or these other things. I just think there's a good chance they just kind of avoid the topic completely, especially in those formal settings.
SPEAKER_04And so I also think there's some good reporting that the reason the trip was delayed in the first place was because of the conflict in Iran.
SPEAKER_06Right. And I think the I think the the thing is is I think Trump wanted to have it wrapped up. Um wrapped up, or at least in a better situation where they could be like, okay, like here's the deal, we'll open the strait. Do you know what I mean? You give us that, but now he seems like that's not really, you know, in his power. Um because they're in Iran are so far off on the negotiations that um yeah, it doesn't seem like he really has a card to play, which is why I assume that Trump doesn't want to bring it up. And just like they wouldn't bring up sensitive topics for the Chinese, I'm sure the China, I'm sure, you know, I guess we're talking about Trump specifically. I don't see why Trump would bring this up um kind of given those delicate nature of the situation. So I'm not saying it's not gonna happen. Obviously, it is the topic de jour, but um, you know, getting four to one on your money, if he doesn't say it, uh, I like it a lot. So I put a decent little sprinkle down.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, that's interesting. Um, and and something that we're noticing though as we're kind of looking at it is there's a maker rebate program on some of these markets where you know you can make these limit orders. And if you're close to what the current price is on the market and you make these limit orders, they give you some type of um, you know, rewards for that. And so I I placed a few sort of open limit orders close to the uh on the no for the Iran, um, hoping it's gonna come down slightly, and then you know, I'm probably gonna buy some yeses uh on top of that as well to kind of try and hedge a bit.
SPEAKER_04What are your thoughts, Andrew, in terms of what you think uh dimensions are so similar to Matt, in that I see Trump uh coming to this meeting uh from a position of weakness in a lot of ways. Um he won't go out of his way, I don't think, to, and granted he is a 80-year-old man, uh so you know 80-year-old men just tend to say things. Um, but I uh took the no on will he say Taiwan or Tibet uh again in Z presence. And it's a 60 cents on the no right now. I just don't think that Trump's gonna go out of his way to step in any toes. Taiwan is the biggest red line for Trump, and assuming he wasn't going to announce uh some sort of change in America's stance towards Taiwan, which I don't think it would be a that would be a huge concession. Um, assuming he was going to weaken America's stance, and I don't think he's going to do that, which means I think he's going to avoid the topic entirely. And uh Tibet seems in in in the same category of why would he go out of his way to bring that up? So I got the no on that 60 cents. Uh hoping I should be able to make a nice little 50% return here over the next couple of days.
SPEAKER_06Nice. Um, one other smaller sprinkle I put down was on friend of mine, which is I believe uh a saying he's used multiple times in the past uh towards Z. But it is a pretty specific phrase, and you can get it to three extra money um if he doesn't say it. So not much more information than that. I just kind of like those odds. And I think a lot of these markets, I think there is more upside on the no, meaning uh I think people are overestimating, you know what I mean, the likelihood of him saying the phrases that you think they're gonna say, because a lot of these times in the past, I think a lot, I think the no's hit more than the yeses, because I think people overs overassume they're gonna approach a lot of different subjects.
SPEAKER_04I also think that Trump goes off script a lot less when he's uncomfortable or out of his element. Like when he's when he's in his groove, he can you know skip battle all over the place and and talk about anything.
SPEAKER_06But when Yeah, like when he's on this airplane, right? Like he does seem to just kind of randomly bring up the most random things because there's a reporter there and he might have a good rapport with them, and he just goes. But I you're right. I think in this formal letter setting in China, big effing deal, I'm sure he has all his aides in his ear being like, you do not do this. He's like, okay, okay, okay. No, like that guess. Um, so yeah, that's kind of the market. Uh it's kind of fun, it is a big deal. Obviously, this China um USA thing, and it does seem like it probably will have repercussions for a lot of things that we have talked about previously. Iran, uh AI, and the Taiwan NVIDIA chips and stuff like that. Is there anything else you guys liked, or is there any other kind of um aspect of this that you think maybe translates into other markets you guys uh thought were interesting?
SPEAKER_04Well, I mean, if we do want to talk Iran real quick, I do think he's going to say the Strait of Hormuz because while he might not want to talk about who's locking the Strait of Hormuz, I think he will go out of his way to try and emphasize that something that he's already got China to back him up on is like, hey no, international waterways are open to everybody, you know, right of uh international trade is very important to China. So I think there's a good chance he is gonna say straight of hormous. I'm not sure if if you think that he can avoid saying the one or not the other matter.
SPEAKER_06Well, that's interesting because I was wondering if we I should just double down and put the no on the straight up for moose as well. But I actually do think it's weird because Iran's higher, him more likely to say that. But I I I think I would agree with you. There's a chance he might say straight up for moves, kind of talking about as the global kind of situation, and not specifically mention Iran. So um I would guess he doesn't bring up either, but maybe there's a chance he brings up one and not the other. And if he did, it might be straight up from. So I think I'm gonna not touch the straight up moves and keep my Iran butt, but uh, I don't think it seems crazy.
SPEAKER_02All right. Well, I was just trying to find some live coverage of this, and it looks like as of like an hour ago, they they're kind of around a round table there in China, and he did say friend at some point, but I think that it which is why I think this market has spiked and why you're seeing some of these markets spiking. So, you know, be careful uh because the you know it's all live going on there. But yeah, Iran has been kind of some interesting things that we've seen some updates with as well. Obviously, straight of hormous. My bets have been performing fairly well, even on the on the June for traffic not returning to normal. Um, obviously, the other thing that we wanted to kind of talk about is kind of an update for uh bet that Andrew and I think both lost on was some of the Iran, you know, which country will strike Iran, which we talked about a few weeks ago. And one of the bets we had was whether the UAUE would. And we had talked about, hey, we think these things happened. It's finally seemingly been confirmed. Uh, but uh, and that's kind of one of those annoying situations where again it goes based on the current reporting and and credible reporting. But what else do you guys think is interesting on uh Iran?
SPEAKER_04I mean, I I hope we're not just gonna leave it there. You can give your piece. I had thousands of shares on these UAE strike beds. And you got in cheap, like roller, baby. I got in super cheap.
SPEAKER_06And it was so now you're confirming that you're right, but it was never reported. The market finalized, and you're effed.
SPEAKER_04I mean, it was like this is the interesting thing about these things, right? Because at a certain point, it's not about it, it's it's it's like the Denzel line, right? It's not what you know, it's what you can prove. And the proving mechanism.
SPEAKER_06Uh Tom Cruise talking to Demi Moore.
SPEAKER_03It doesn't matter what you know, it matters what you can prove. Maybe you missed that in the law school day at whatever. No, it's it's Denzel from trading day. It's not what you know, it's what you can prove. Is that not the line? Uh I I I I I know it from Tom Cruise and Demi Moore.
SPEAKER_06Maybe we Joel, if you could cut if you could cut slice in the actual saying, I think it'd be good right here, but I'm pretty confident I'm I got this one right.
SPEAKER_02Okay.
SPEAKER_03Uh let's let's keep it away from the movie quotes, guys. Uh again.
SPEAKER_04No, but my my point was to say is that um because the resolving mechanism is all based on reporters, and we all know that reporters all have agendas and sources who will demand um they not report or report based on criteria that are you know their own agendas.
SPEAKER_02Like I think at the end of the day, when it comes when it comes to these kind of things, like the you're right, it it's usually these markets are based on a limited time frame and based on usually like proof that it happened, or it's often a consensus of credible reporting. And I think we've seen these situations, whether it was Venezuela with the docs getting striked, or this UAE situation where it's like we kind of know it happened, and there are the rumors, and there are these sort of certain sites that put out a report on it, but that's not a consensus of credible reporting, where it's like everybody's saying, hey, this event happened. We know that the UAE has like confirmed it in such to some degree, or or US has confirmed this strike on Venezuelan docs, you know, like the there wasn't enough consensus, I think, is is right within the time period.
SPEAKER_04I guess my question is to you guys, it's like what seems more plausible? Because again, I'm not a reporter, I have I don't have any resources, but I was able to the piece these things together within the the time period that I mean I I could splice in the old episode right now. Uh, but like I I was almost positive this happened because there was on the ground footage of planes hitting Iran that were not flown by the Americans or the Israelis. So I guess my question to you guys is what do you think is more likely that like just no one cared? Like there's no foreign or correspondent reporter who cared enough to get this out there, or or is it what I think is more likely, the powers that be said, hey, we actually don't want this getting out that this happened because we don't want this escalating right now, so bury it.
SPEAKER_06Or even I think I think it's probably maybe even more along the lines of like Washington Post or whoever have to have this confirmed off the record before they can actually publish it. So they might have said, hey, you know, we've heard this tip, like we have this document, what can you say? And he's like, uh we can say nothing. And then a month later, they're like, Well, actually, now I can confirm because we know where this is going in the UAE, it's whatever, it's kind of more obvious now. Uh, you know, same with the reporting about you know, UAE and Israel meeting, you know, you might have heard I don't know if there were rumors of that, but now it's been confirmed, you know, it in some mainstream reporting.
SPEAKER_02And I and I I think I think that's the key, right? It's like unknown random sources that do get out to some of the news aren't trusted by those mainstream sources that become the consensus of credible reporting, right? Um, so yeah, it it is kind of interesting how these some of these markets resolve them. So you do have to be careful of that, especially when they're time limited. But uh they're not as all as as crispy clean like the the Venezuela strikes were or the Venezuela insertion and removal of Maduro was. Okay. Do you guys want the quick Tom Cruise uh quote? Just uh I was a little bit of a Okay, the movie buffs are waiting.
SPEAKER_01You're a Dawson. You both live in the same dream world. It doesn't matter what I believe, it only matters what I can prove. So please don't tell me what I know and don't know. I know the law.
SPEAKER_06So I'm not sure if that's what if that's if that's the quote you were going forward, but that's the one I was thinking of.
SPEAKER_02Andrew's gonna be googling on his own end here for a little bit.
SPEAKER_04So, first of all, I put in there it's not what you know, is what you can prove. And the first one that popped up is from training day.
SPEAKER_06Let's hear it, let's hear it. I guess we were both right.
SPEAKER_00You got one problem though, Jake. You got no witnesses. Who are your fucking witnesses? Huh? Roger, smiley, you think my troops are gonna help you? It's not what you know, it's what you can prove.
SPEAKER_06Okay. Sounds like you were the more actual direct quote, but mine is still relevant.
SPEAKER_02And this is why we shouldn't argue about these things. Everybody can be right.
SPEAKER_06We do put this as a comedy podcast at one point in our uh hey.
SPEAKER_04This is why our listeners keep coming back week after week.
SPEAKER_06They don't dozens, the most important. Um, okay, let's keep going on then. Um, Andrew, I thought you had one interesting bet. Um, and we can kind of talk a little bit about uh the ceasefire in Ukraine and how some of those bets got settled, and there was a little bit of kerfuffle about that. And then now I believe you have kind of a new bet going forward that you want to talk about uh pertaining to Ukraine and Russia. Maybe you want to get into that?
SPEAKER_04I mean, this is another one where the the the method by which the markets are resolved in polymarket, I will be screaming about this until our final episode. Uh, but it's very frustrating when they seemingly do not abide by their own rules. So despite the fact that I did have uh and I've talked about how I like the the Russian ceasefire bet, um, when it resolved to a yes, I was against it resolving it and and still am. And for the listeners uh who are wondering what ceasefire would did I miss this, no, you did not miss it because there was, in fact, really no ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Seemingly what happened is uh because they were having their victory over the Nazis Remembrance Day uh in Russia, and as Ukrainian long-range drones uh could easily hit crowds in Russia, supposedly uh Putin asked Trump directly on the phone for uh a ceasefire. Zelensky responded back and said, Okay, we will not hit the following GPS coordinates of your parade, and that qualified as a yes on the ceasefire market, despite the fact that there was no universal ceasefire. Nowhere on the the front did they stop firing, and it was only agreed to to the extent that either side uh basically said please don't bomb a parade. But that was enough uh to qualify as a yes, so nice to book a win. But um I I think this is telling uh as to where the war in Ukraine is going. Uh, but maybe you guys want to mention uh some of your thoughts first.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, not to disagree with you, Andrew, and I did think. This was kind of an odd one. And I know there was that phone call, and a lot of this came down to the threads from Putin on the parade, but I don't think it was just the phone call and sort of the reporting on that. There was also, at least what I saw on Twitter from either side, Trump and some of the other people, and and you know, some of the Ukrainian side saying, Hey, we've done this three-day ceasefire around the parade time. And again, whether that whether that it was actually followed or did anything, I'm sure the drones, the drones were still flying and shit didn't stop actually on the ground, but it seemed like there was a bit more of an announcement than just like a phone call that was unconfirmed, right? And so that's why I think maybe that resolves to a yes. But yeah, I didn't have too much uh in it one way or the other.
SPEAKER_04So I think um to get into the market that I like and maybe some of my reasoning, so I've got a bet on will Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027. I got in just under 18. Uh, it's now up to 22. So you're still looking to, you know, maybe five extra money almost if you were to get in now. And I think that this ceasefire, that you know, quote unquote ceasefire that just happened really shows the weakness in the Russian position currently. They are under constant threat of um aerial bombardment by these one-way suicide drones that Ukraine has designed and is now manufacturing domestically to the extent to which there's basically nowhere west of the Ural Mountains, which is the you know, the big one that kind of bisects Russia as a country, anywhere on the Eurasian side can be hit by these Ukrainian one-way drones now. Uh and it's uh obviously impacting their bottom line in terms of their oil production and the ability to export and earn money. But uh it's gotten to the point where basically no uh Ukrainian or sorry, Ukrainian, no Russian armored uh tanks are even being tried to use anymore. Um soldiers can't meet up in in large formations for fear that they're gonna be hit. Ukraine has full dominance of the battleground, up until including hundreds of kilometers from the front. And the the Putin assassination rumors that uh are starting to come out of Moscow, the just just the the position that Putin is blatantly in, where he had to beg Trump for uh to beg Zlinski in turn to get this ceasefire, that is a far cry from where we were even maybe a year or two ago in this war. And I think that with Trump's desire to end this war and to be a peacemaker maker, this might be Putin's last chance to get a good deal, uh you know, and still feel like he's maybe working one over on Ukraine.
SPEAKER_06That's interesting. What do you what do you think about like the chances that there's some type of grand deal? I mean, knowing that uh Russia has been rumored to be providing coordinates um you know coordinates assistance to um to Iran during some of their fighting that um you know these markets are somewhat related. Um do you think there's any chance that like China and everything, everyone's in a big room and we walk away with a big trade deal, you know, ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz open? Like obviously it seems kind of you know uh fantastical, but like do you think it's anything where these these things are get kind of aligned and China does seem to be a little bit of the common thread as well when they're saying, yeah, they have relationships with Iran, they have relationships with Russia, they're buying their oil. Like, you guys think that's crazy, or is that is there any chance this all kind of gets settled at once?
SPEAKER_02I I mean I think it's crazy that it all gets said settled publicly at once, right? It that they actually get in a room together. I think there's a lot there's dominoes that can happen. There's you know certain events that you know if if Russia settles, maybe that lessens the support in Iran as part of that. But again, I don't think that's gonna happen immediately. But I do think like Andrew said, I think Ukraine has at least on the ground, they've set up the trenches, right? And it it's been how many years now? It seems crazy. Like what is this, four, six years? How long has it been since this thing started? In any event. It after some of the ones, so I think five years. Five years. So after some of that initial movement, they they really haven't done much else.
SPEAKER_04They just passed, you know, earlier this year, the the anniversary of it being longer than World War II, or you know, they call it the Great Patriotic War, right? Where they were fighting the Nazis on the Eastern Front in much the same areas for for for a lot of the fighting. And it's a huge psychological motivation.
SPEAKER_06Are you blocked? Is he frozen or is it?
SPEAKER_04My brain's frozen.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, yeah, yeah. Uh yeah. Anyways, the psychological effects are yeah, big that they're, you know, they they're trying to this war has been longer than the World War II war where they saved the world against the Nazis, which is I believe their common view.
SPEAKER_02Uh yeah, but I think it's it's that same entrenched level that at some point they're gonna have to come to a resolution, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's gonna cascade until in Iran and these other things getting settled at the same time. But again, one of the other things we talked about was kind of as the strait hasn't resolved yet, I've got some, you know, the no on June, that's been going up, uh, which is I've also got some oil bets that I took, you know, some of the highs uh by the end of June. I got in pretty low, those have all gone up. And I think that kind of translates into some of the concerns we have around the economy as well, and some of you know the thoughts there. But what are your thoughts, Andrew, on the on the oil markets? Do you have any interesting things going on there? And how are we thinking that's rolling into the economy more generally?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, I mean, I just rolled over all my straight traffic bets from May. I got the nose, we're at 90. So I'm like, well, might as well roll them into June at this point because I don't think this thing's gonna get resolved anytime soon. My June, end of June oil bets, a lot of them are looking nice and green now. And yeah, I guess my question to you guys is uh stock markets at an all-time high. Um are we sitting on the precipice or are we now in let's you know let's get things a chuggin territory? Because it certainly seems to me like a lot of like they might have priced in the oil market at this point, but they're not pricing all these inputs that come out of the uh the the Gulf and the Straits of War moves. It sure seems to me like there's a lot of the world economy that if they're seeing two dollars a liter uh you know for diesel fuel, uh that's gonna really slow some things down.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, no, I think it's kind of interesting when you're looking at the the stock market. I think there is kind of two ways. And if you look kind of since like the all-in guys podcast and kind of some of their positives, it's like you have this huge AI boom that maybe just beyond the premises of having real economic returns um kind of going forward. And if you think of the economy that as like something that was kind of significantly hampered during Biden, if they can land the plane on Iran, on China, you know what I mean, and kind of get this thing settled at least by the end of the summer, then I think there is ways you can think of like, oh no, everything's gonna start really taking off, and we're finally gonna get the Trump boom economy that you kind of you know hoped or planned for um going into the fall and see some real GDP growth. The other the other side of the coin is that uh this thing's a huge problem. It creates a global kind of shortage and depression to a certain degree uh all over the globe. And you know, yeah, you're gonna look back and say, why didn't I sell at the peak? It was so obvious that this thing wasn't gonna settle and the market was still at all-time high. So um, yeah, I mean, kinda obviously there's obviously two sides of it, but I I do kind of see the potential both ways.
SPEAKER_04So what landing would you even envision at this point would be possible in Iran? Again, sh uh maybe especially short of like any sort of escalate to de-escalate situation, like without dramatically escalating what they've already done, and not to mention potentially more strikes, which I do think are coming.
SPEAKER_06I I mean that and that's why I lean towards no deal for all this stuff, because I think they couldn't they couldn't walk walk away right now without basically having a worse deal than how they started. Either like Iran has some form of control over the strait, either officially or unofficially, maybe collecting some type of toll tolls going through, which is gonna you know be a boom to their economy. I don't think Israel would be happy with that.
SPEAKER_04Um you know, and so then there's but it would essentially be a a a worse deal than the JCPOA uh that Obama uh entered into and that Trump got out of. Like I if you remember, uh if you remember that when during the Biden presidency, they tried to get back into JCPOA. And I think they sent Kerry over to Geneva to have these talks, and the Iranians were like, no, no, no, there's no chance of you getting back into the old deal. We're starting with uh but some new asks for the new deal, and we're gonna squeeze the crap out of you. And obviously Biden never you know assassinated the the supreme leader, so even like like what kind of deal do you think would be at all you know appetizing for for the IRGC to jump on?
SPEAKER_06Yeah, I think the only deal that kind of makes sense as possible, like again, I I I I I think there's not going to be a deal in the short term, but it'd have to be something with China where they would, you know, kind of be some kind of guarantor, maybe they go get the enriched uranium and there's some type of you know hiatus, because it sounds like they don't want to do like a never deal, but maybe a 10 or 20 year uh deal to no enrichment kind of thing. Um but you know, if you if you listen to like someone like Joe Kent, and I'm sure you know some of you guys disagree with things he said, but he said that before this um war was initiated, that Iran did fear Trump and they did know he killed Solomonny, and they were saying that they were willing to do a better deal than the JCPOA, which if he did pull off, uh you know, could have felt like a win, you know, saying, hey, yeah, I got a way better deal than Obama. And I feel like now there's really hard to make a deal because I don't see how they get that. I just don't see what um I mean you've already destroyed so much of Iran, you already killed the Supreme Leader. What what what's what's their benefit to do it?
SPEAKER_02So I don't know. Um, no, I yeah, I think you're right, Matt, because there there was this hope that Trump would have this slam dunk like he had with Maduro, where he does something better than the JCPOA. But I think the practical thing that we've seen, and I just re-upped my straight bets, is that Iran does seem to have a chokehold. Uh, and you know, they triggered it because they got attacked. And even, you know, that it doesn't seem like they are at the weak point at this point, even though, like, you know, they they could all be murdered at some point by some bunker buster, sure, uh, if they get found. But generally speaking, um, you know, the America's not going to a hot war.
SPEAKER_04Uh, there's only so many bunker busters as as a big ass country, and you know, I I was talking last time.
SPEAKER_02Well, they don't want to murder indiscriminately, they don't want it to be a full-scale war. The whole point, you know, they've been doing these different attack project freedom type things and then and then pulling out on it.
SPEAKER_06Well, and there's been new reporting that said that um that these these underground sites they have where they they would hold their missiles even with bunker busters, they're not getting through. And so, I mean, if you believe the New York Times reporting, I think it was there's they have like 70% of their missiles in stock that they had since the start of the war. So basically, if things were start to ramp up again and they were starting to have you know firing on large infrastructure, something like that, the allegation is that Iran has all the missiles they need to do serious damage to the Gulf states, maybe Israel as well. And so it's just kind of a bad set spot.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and Shortaboots on the ground is never really gonna give up that chokehold on the straits because it's always gonna be mined, they're always gonna, you know, I think it's gonna be really hard to completely destroy their ability to shoot even small missiles at ships. You know, these guys will stand stand on the beach and shoot RPGs if they have to, you know.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, I get at the end of the day, I think I think uh we should have played this more specific the whole time, which was the bet's always the straight, right? That's always the kind of the th the tell of this stuff actually gets fixed. And yeah, I'm with you guys rolling over to to June.
SPEAKER_02Um I I just bought a bunch for July, which like hasn't taken a dive. Like the nose are you know, the nose are still pretty expensive, but I feel or you're you know, like not super cheap yet, but I feel like it's gonna it's gonna just get worse and worse odds that this resolves even by by July. Like the odds of December have are not even in crazy of this resolving. It's at like 70%, but I'm like, oh maybe maybe you bet the no one by December this doesn't even resolve. That's not that crazy.
SPEAKER_06It's not that crazy. And if that happened, I don't see how you don't have some huge global problems uh economically to go with it. So you can kind of tie some other markets to that. Uh that kind of makes sense. Um, but that's enough Iran. We talk about Iran all the time. Joel, why don't you set us up for our uh if you had to this week?
SPEAKER_02Well, you know, speaking of uh places that the US loves to shoot bombs at or uh threaten, uh, we are going to be talking about if you had to. This is the U.S. strikes on Cuba um by um well it's actually the market is specifically U.S. military action, but the wording in the market says, you know, will there be a U.S. initiated drone strike, missile, or airstrike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred. So something that we've talked about a little bit here before. Um, and then it says for the purpose of this market, a qualifying strike is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles, including FPV, uh, ATM strikes, as well as ballistic or cruise missiles launched by the U.S. operatives, including blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. Um, and so again, what are your thoughts on the rules on this one, guys? If you had to, let's start with uh Matt here. If you had to, Matt, it's currently at 45%. Would you put a dollar on yes, or would you spend uh 50 cents, seven cents to get a no?
SPEAKER_06Uh I put a little sprookle down on the no. And I think this is where this is where Venezuela really pays off. Where I mean, now you know there is quite the the frame. I mean, where they could literally do something very similar, you know, put them in court, you know, whatever, yada yada. I believe there's been some back uh back channel negotiations with Rubio already. So I I still like the US and Cuba to make a deal sometime this year. I don't like the strikes. Um yeah, I put I I would go for the no. You guys? Andrew, what are your thoughts if you had to?
SPEAKER_04I'm also gonna take the no. Um unlike obviously Iran and unlike Venezuela, I don't think there's anywhere near as much acrimony uh that both uh the leaders uh of Iran and Venezuela showed. Like, do you remember what's his face, uh Maduro, when he was up there taunting uh Trump, saying, like, come and get me and call me, I'm in Miraflores, you can you you know where to find me. And then he actually went to Miraflores and took him out there, uh, which is incredible, pretty ironic. But I mean, uh unless I'm missing like this Castro, or not Castro, this Canell guy, uh Diaz Canell, um, he has almost no presence. I've never seen him talk. I've certainly never seen him, you know, uh talking crap about Trump and saying, come get me. I just don't think that there's anywhere near the amount of Americans um who would cheer on military strikes, uh, nor is there anywhere near as many Cubans uh who have uh I think the the antagonism that you might find, say, in Iran for Americans. So I think it's gonna be a no. And uh yeah, put a little sprinkler on that myself.
SPEAKER_02All right, I'll go for the exciting bit. Here if I had to, I'm gonna go for the yes, because I think this is, you know, it's gone up and down historically. I don't necessarily think I would hold on to this yes until it resolves, but I think it's taking a big spike right now, and we've still got six months time where I think if we're in a situation where uh Russia and Iran and some of these other situations resolve and the attention comes back to Cuba, even if it like you say, Matt, I agree with you. I think like Venezuela it's gonna take time for the ships to get there and everything to ramp up. But sometimes these these markets will react, right? As soon as there's some reporting that it's like, hey, all the you know, all the carrier fleets are now heading back to towards Cuba. I think this market could spike, even though I I agree with you, I don't think we're gonna see that military action. So, but you know, I I'd I'd put a tiny sprinkle on the yes just to try and play a little more on the upside.
SPEAKER_04I also think Trump's gonna be a little more gun shy after Iran. And seemingly this could, you know, he's not gonna want to start more messes when he hasn't even cleaned up the current one, um, or at least the military.
SPEAKER_02I'm playing the upside on that offshot that things resolve, you know, on some of these other markets that we don't think resolve. So I'm just trying to make this exciting if you had to this week. I'm not don't take Joel's uh uh thoughts as gospel on this one, but uh I I I don't know.
SPEAKER_04I did you guys see uh when Hassan Piker went down to Cuba and there was like the reporting that like, oh, he was staying in the nicest uh hotel in Havana and like looking around, it was the only place there that had power on at night, and everybody else is in blackout. I mean, not that it's right to to to hit any persons in any country, anywhere. Uh, but you know, the idea of accidentally, you know, hitting some civilian infrastructure in Cuba and it's just the poor Cubans sitting in in the dark in a blackout, I just I just don't think Trump is gonna have that same, yeah, go get them uh mentality. I I'm with Matt. I think this gets uh negotiated into a is it into a new, maybe not regime, but at least uh something Venezuela-like in that they're now gonna be friendly to the Americans.
SPEAKER_02All right. Well, I mean, another uh sort of territorial thing we were kind of talking about was Greenland. I don't think we've talked about this yet. And um something that I think I initially kind of brought up and and has been sort of up and down. I, you know, I I've I think mostly got out on my Greenland bed and then I bought some back in. I haven't really made a ton of money on this market, unfortunately. There were times where I could have. But where where are your guys' thoughts on whether there's going to be that sort of acquisition of part of Greenland? And again, I think my first thoughts at least is again counter to what I just Said on the last one, I think we are seeing that Trump is busy with a lot of other things. So even if we think this resolves maybe during his term, I don't necessarily know necessarily if that part of Greenland in 2026 getting acquired. Again, I saw there was rumors maybe that they acquire the land under the basis, right? Maybe that was sort of thought as a as a permanent lease before, and maybe they're going to get some of that sovereign territory. So that could resolve to a yes, but we haven't really seen the markets move. What do you what do you guys think about that?
SPEAKER_06Well, yeah, that's the weird thing, right? I I had a decent sized chunk of this bet. Um got in pretty cheap, so I'm still about even. And I always like the part of, I thought it was more likely that they did a Guantanamo Bay type of sovereignty over parts of Greenland rather than you know taking control of the entire thing. But weirdly, there was that reporting that they were looking to declare certain bases sovereign land and things like that, and no movement. And I don't know if that's because they've already established those and it's not the new ones, but um, you think it would make a difference that if they kind of create that precedent and then they just say, Yeah, and we need this for whatever strategic reasons, we made a deal with Denmark. Like, I I still think that's pretty likely. I still like the bet at um, you know, what is it, six to one basically.
SPEAKER_02But um I I you know, not to toot my own arm, but I think this was something when we initially talked about the Greenland that I highlighted, and maybe you guys, you know, we talked about this as well, but just like taking that land under the ground, right? Becoming more than just sort of a lease and having some control over the airspace, et cetera, with land is where you essentially start getting those those waterway um, you know, international water portions where you can say, well, this is now American international waters and or you know, American national waters, and they they can start to patrol that, I think, uh in a more significant fashion. So I think, yeah, that could be an interesting way that this goes to a yes, but will that happen this year? Andrew, what do you think?
SPEAKER_04I was actually kind of just thinking about what Matt said. I'm not sure if America actually has uh sovereignty over uh Guantanamo Bay. I think they they technically pay uh lease checks to Cuba, and even if they have sovereign control, maybe uh I'm not sure if that technically counts as sovereignty. And I think that's the problem that you maybe might be getting into with Green Bay, and of course, or Green Bay, Green Land, Green Bay, baby Packers, let's go. Sorry, cheese land, baby. But with Green Land, I mean I I and I talked about this months ago when it first came up, and uh I might have bought some of these shares on on that same rumor we were talking about where they they said, oh yeah, the US will get sovereignty. But I don't think any sort of perpetual lease uh situation will qualify as a yes, and I don't like do you guys really think that they're gonna change the color on the map in you know in in in certain areas and be like, no, that's American territory, not Greenland, you know, with a hundred-year lease, and or Denmark with a hundred-year lease, uh giving it to the Americas.
SPEAKER_02Uh, it's let's just let let's just look into the rules a little bit here. This is the will U.S. acquire part of Greenland in 2026. Again, there's a lot of different rules on this one, but one of the ones that we look at, it says examples of qualifying events include but are not limiting to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any part of the US of Greenland US territory possession. But specifically it says, or a guantanamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary use jurisdiction and control. So it does specifically include the Guantanamo style arrangement in this market, which is I think part of the reason we had been in a different, you know, will they acquire Greenland market, which was at the same rates? And then we all switched over to the part one because of these reasons where more so if they just get even more control or more exclusive sovereign jurisdiction over the bases they already have, or maybe some land around it, you know, unoccupied areas where they can say, hey, now we can control the waters, etc. Seems like that could qualify, even if it's not sovereign changed on a map. But you know, there's also lots of weird situations on maps that uh don't necessarily like the you know, the bases that are in in certain areas don't don't always don't get turned into American land, even though effectively sometimes they they kind of have a lot of control over.
SPEAKER_04Interesting. Well, maybe I won't uh send my shares and I'll hang on to this because I think there's a good chance that happens.
SPEAKER_05I still like it. Yeah, I still like it. So um all right, let's kind of uh maybe finish up, Andrew. You wanted to uh you put a little sprinkle down.
SPEAKER_06I like how we're all saying sprinkled up um on us on uh Spencer Pratt uh earlier. He seems to be taking off. I mean, uh getting you know, he's on TMZ, he got a podcast with all in guys, like uh seems to be kind of doing good. What are the markets at? And uh what do you think going forward?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, well, I mean, I got into this one a little early. Um not that early. I got and at 23, he's now at 25. Um, I think it was as high as 30 uh earlier this week. I think there's a lot of momentum behind this guy because he's saying the things that everybody wants to hear from the politicians, i.e., talk actual practical issues that face Los Angelinos. Um I mean, I was there a couple summers ago and my wife wanted to get out of that town as quick as possible. And even just spending time at the Santa Monica Pier, I mean, that place is not um not a family-friendly place anymore. That it it it used to be a lot of homeless drug use, hard to take your kids down to a lot of places in LA and feel safe. And I think he's just putting the things uh things out there that maybe everybody uh thinks and is afraid to say. Um I'm not saying he's uh got any sort of particular pedigree uh worthy of becoming a mayor. I don't know uh his uh his resume. One of the largest cities in the world. Yeah. But uh hey, like it it it's one of those things like this is why Trump kind of was successful, is he was saying the things that the rest of the political class was afraid to say, and if he's the only one who's saying them, then people are gonna want to vote for you.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, and he seems to have a little bit of the backing of some of the major press, the political, you know, whatever groups that you're talking about, like you know, the free press has covered him, like I said, all these other groups as well. So um, yeah, if you're if you're getting that kind of more mainstream, uh center-ish kind of backing, you know what I mean? I thought he was gonna stay in this fringe, uh, like kind of like, you know, weird podcast only kind of space, but he seemed like he's broken through to some of the more, you mean not the CBS and NBC stuff yet, but kind of the fringe um main players. Uh, I think he has a chance. So I don't know, maybe I'll put a little put a little sprinkle on, you know, but uh hey, I took a little sprinkle myself, sir.
SPEAKER_02And I I think, you know, again, I I would kind of agree. It seems like he, you know, they're the mainstream media is still at this point where they're trying to paint him a certain way. Um, you know, they're trying to say, oh, well, this guy, you know, he's a a white guy. And and they're trying to say, well, they're calling they're calling him MAGA. I know, yeah. I was trying to lead into that saying that you know in a soft way. They're trying to say he's mega. And again, no, they they we don't know much necessarily about his personal politics, but the way he's presenting himself publicly and on these podcasts that I've listened to, he's debating the real issues like, hey, why aren't we prepared for the wildfires? Why did we drain the reservoirs? Why did we, you know, why aren't we dealing with the homelessness problem? Why aren't we dealing with the poop on the streets? Uh which is again, I think anyone living in LA says, wait a minute, those are things that I I do care about, even if I, you know, you know, and again, I don't want to side with a certain political party, but a lot of those people see that as a practical problem. They're trying to raise kids in LA or they're trying to, you know, just live their lives in the downtown area. Again, I haven't been to LA, but I've seen enough to know that there's a lot of shit going on.
SPEAKER_06Well, it's interesting what Andrew said, because I I remember going to the Santa Monica uh Boulevard uh pier, however, maybe like 10 years ago or something like that. No, maybe 12 years ago. And I thought it was beautiful. So I mean, there obviously has been real changes recently, and uh I think his message, which is like Republicans and Democrats like me, just the communists and the socialists that don't, like uh probably resonates for a huge portion. So I think they're mad they didn't probably elect Caruso last time. So yeah, who knows? I mean, these things are hard to pull off, you know, coming kind of out of nowhere as uh random ex uh you know reality TV star, but hey, four to one doesn't seem crazy.
SPEAKER_04Speaking of the socialists, the the the DSA, even further to the left candidate, Neithi Raman, uh to the left of the incumbent, Karen Bass, who was up at 54% to win uh as recently as a few weeks ago, is now polling below Spencer Pratt at 20% in this market. So seemingly she didn't do that well in the debates because she's bottoming me out here.
SPEAKER_06Yeah, and you wonder if there's some kind of consolation or like consolidation they might try to do there. Um I'm not sure how the ballot works, but like you know, get her off. If it's just bass, they probably can beat him. But if they split the vote, then maybe that's a shot. So I'm not sure how it works, to be honest, but interesting to see how it plays out.
SPEAKER_04Who knows? The the most interesting thing to come out of this is of course uh his AI advertisements that he's used.
SPEAKER_06And I'm like, this is the future of political You don't need to spend a lot of money, you just need to have a cool Star Wars, uh, you know, the Jedi are all going after you and we're making you Darth Vader, you know, and it's uh yeah, it works pretty good.
SPEAKER_03So I thought Karen Bass was the Joker. Wasn't that the meme? Or is that a different meme? I'm sure there's lots of different ones.
SPEAKER_06She's Vader, he's Luke, and then everyone, you know, grabs their lightsaber and goes attacks the the dark ward. Anyways.
SPEAKER_02Well, speaking of AI, that I think that was one of the other markets we wanted to talk about was uh kind of uh some of the I guess AI stuff. Uh, but yeah, uh we can leave that for next week. Uh let's leave it up there. Wrap it up, boys. Good week. Good weekend. We'll make a good 29 in the books, baby. Good best.
SPEAKER_04This might be a long one.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, Andrew's Andrew's not gonna have to spend long editing this, I'm sure.
SPEAKER_06No, you got the fun stuff. All right, boys, we're back for the big big 3-0 next week, boys. Sounds good. Love y'all. Yeah, love. I guess boxes, you know, you can get it.