#31. HODL Me Closer, Tiny Senator

In Episode 31, the crew bounces between markets, politics, economics, and geopolitics, with a recurring theme: when should you hold a position versus panic-selling too early?

The episode opens with discussion around the eye-popping valuation of SpaceX and whether retail investors are already too late to the party. That leads into a broader conversation about market bubbles, recession risks, and whether current optimism is masking deeper economic vulnerabilities. 

The hosts then celebrate a pair of Canadian prediction-market wins: Canada's entry into a technical recession and Alberta's referendum-related political drama. The discussion turns into a self-deprecating lesson about selling positions too early versus simply holding and letting the thesis play out. 

From there, attention shifts to the 2026 U.S. midterms. The team analyzes key Senate races, including Maine and Texas, debates whether Democrats are gaining momentum, and discusses how scandals appear to affect voters differently than they once did. Their "If You Had To" segment focuses on which party will control the Senate after the 2026 elections, with all three leaning Democratic. 

The conversation then pivots to early positioning for the 2028 presidential race. The hosts debate candidates ranging from Wes Moore and Kamala Harris to long-shot bets and speculative market plays, arguing that much of the value lies in identifying future contenders before the broader market catches on. 

The final segment dives into the evolving Russia–Ukraine war. The hosts discuss how drone warfare has transformed the battlefield, the depletion of traditional armored forces, the strategic importance of Crimea, and the possibility of a ceasefire before winter. They explore prediction markets tied to negotiations, territorial gains, and the future direction of the conflict. 

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:00

Alright.

SPEAKER_00 0:01

Let's do it.

SPEAKER_01 0:02

Okay.

SPEAKER_02 0:04

What episode is this? I I feel like the least prepared I've ever felt for an episode, but fuck it. Let's do it live.

SPEAKER_01 0:10

Let's go.

SPEAKER_02 0:10

Andrew, Andrew, you're in you're in charge.

SPEAKER_00 0:13

I'm in charge of what?

SPEAKER_02 0:14

Uh carrying the pod. No, but I feel like normally I'm like, oh, these are some things I'm gonna say. I have like some points to make. I feel like today I'm starting with absolutely nothing, so you take it away, baby. You're in charge. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 0:39

Welcome everybody to episode 31 of the Polymarks Podcast. I'm your host, Joel, here with my brothers Matt and Andrew. This is your semi-weekly reminder that betting on the future is easier than predicting it. We've got an exciting week, obviously, lots of updates with Iran. We want to talk Ukraine and Russia. We're gonna talk a little bit about the American politics as well. Uh let's start it off with uh Iran. Obviously, we've had a long time go on since our last podcast here. My straits bets are performing fairly well. My ceasefire bets that we talked about are performing fairly well. But Andrew, what are your thoughts? Has there been any kind of major movement or what are your thoughts on things? I uh the interesting thing that jumped out to me is I didn't, and I don't know if you guys saw this, is Trump had announced that they like snuck some ships through the strait. They're like, hey, we got like 22 oil tankers out during the night. We turned the radars off. Iran didn't even know. You know, I didn't I don't know much about it, but what do you guys think?

SPEAKER_00 1:32

So it was interesting because yeah, we're recording here on Wednesday the 10th, and it came out today that Trump's like, yeah, we got a whole bunch of Arab Gulf ally uh ships through the straits. Um I think he said as many as 200 ships. I'm not sure if that was like cumulative in the last few months.

SPEAKER_01 1:52

I just thought today, yeah, I saw and announced at least like 22 ships last night, right? And then again, our straight traffic ones still perform well because again, when the radars turn off and they're sneaking through, it doesn't come through on the port watch.

SPEAKER_02 2:06

Oh, oh, interesting. But and are we assuming that the Iranians are also getting stuff out and through, or is that completely shut down by the American blockade?

SPEAKER_00 2:16

The blockade is still in effect. Um some ships have been able to get through a lot, have been either turned back or some shot and boarded.

SPEAKER_01 2:27

But I assume Iran has a similar situation. We know they're they're obviously charging some type of toll, but they're probably also turning the radars off and also running these ships in the night. And I don't think they're wanting to announce, hey guys, we got 600 ships, you know, through so that you can they don't want people to know how much they're making off of this, right? And what exactly is going on.

SPEAKER_02 2:45

No, I think the whole thing's become the whole thing's become sounds like it's become a dark market. Great for our straits bets. Great for our straight spets. So let's yeah, let's let's maybe let's update the straights bets. Also, like the US Iran permanent peace deal, which I think was kind of our big uh bet. It's now my current big largest position, and I have the no on that for July. It's up um, yeah, I'm up like 50 or 60 percent uh since we got in. I got in at 50, and now uh it's all the way up to 72% on the no for July 31st. So the market's saying we don't see any deal happening here uh in the next you know month and a half or so. Um and so yeah, so overall, overall, I think we're we're continuing to show that our that our predictions that this thing is gonna be dragging out the straights, bets, the permanent peace deals, uh they're not happening. When so far we're looking pretty smart.

SPEAKER_01 3:35

Yeah, I mean the the straight traffic by the end of June, you know, I got in at 64, it's almost you know, all the way to 100, it's at 93% because we know we know it's not gonna be returning to normal on the port watch. And again, I kind of went long. I thought I think when we talked about this initially, you guys were still a little heavier on June. I I'm happy I went longer on July just because I felt like that was a good good return. And it went from 42 all the way up to 74 already. And I don't see it, you know, magically changing overnight into the month of July. And it seems like the permanent peace deal ones are also performing well for us as well. But Andrew, how are your straights bets for me? I feel like you're always you you got big bigger money on this than I do.

SPEAKER_00 4:15

Yeah, I mean, I about half my book is on these straight bets. Um, I sold all my June bets once it got to you know mid to high 80s, uh, and then I rolled most of it over into July, like you were talking about, Joel. I got in at 66, it's now up to 75. And I also put uh fairly significant bet on will the straight traffic return to normal within 2026. I got the no at 25, it's up a little bit to 27 and a half now. Um, but yeah, I mean the way I see it, especially if I mean borrowing some sort of crazy uh I don't know. They they change the rules, the the Oh yes, yes, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 5:03

The market data, yeah. No, but like the we're we're the the polymarketing post hoc rules adjustment where it's like you know how we said this earlier, this is what we really said it was gonna be the official data, but we decided since they're all sending their ships through unofficially, we gotta do something. Now that it's been acknowledged.

SPEAKER_00 5:19

I I uh yeah, I know that it's barring that kind of crazy revision from uh you know on the rules of the market, which would not be unprecedented. Uh yeah, I I don't see even with uh there being some sort of negotiated uh diplomatic solution, how uh you know this traffic can get back to 60 ships over a seven rolling day average, as noted by the IMF port watch uh website. Like, I don't think there's any chance of that happening by the end of July, and there's a good chance it's not gonna happen for months.

SPEAKER_02 5:55

I mean, it would be crazy. I mean, if this if this straits is still closed by the end of the year, and I'm not saying it's a bad bet, I think at four to one it might be a decent bet, actually, but that really does mean like the the financial and yeah, just broader global impacts are gonna be crazy.

SPEAKER_01 6:14

You know what I mean? Well, it's it yeah, and again, I I was looking at that next market too, because the next one is December 31st, but it's crazy to me they haven't opened some mid-markets like September. Because I I would start looking at the market. Yeah, I'd feel good even up to like October.

SPEAKER_02 6:29

But if you're like talking about the end of year, like damn, I hope they figure this out because that's gonna not be good for anybody if uh it's still clogged up by then.

SPEAKER_00 6:38

So it seems like the position that the Iranians are in is that they have at least uh, you know, two factions, if not multi-factions, that are fighting uh for control of the regime. And they have sussed out that Trump wants a deal, that Trump wants to to to get things going again, and have correctly sort of gauged that they can outweighed him as he has the pressures of gasoline prices during the summer and midterms coming in November. Um but at the same time, Trump uh has recognized that you know he has a decent hand too in terms of keeping um oil dollars not flowing to the regime and the that economic pressure combined with everything else that that Bessent has has has done to try and tank their economy. Both sides, I feel think they can wait the other out. Um, and there doesn't seem to be much of a third uh third way for this to go. And either way, I feel like that's good for our bets.

SPEAKER_02 7:48

Yeah, I I I don't know if America can wait it out. Meaning, we you know, we're gonna talk later in the show about the midterms and things like that.

SPEAKER_00 7:57

I mean But Trump said himself earlier this week, like literally like verbatim, I don't care about the midterms. Of course he has to say that is technically the correct thing. Sure. I mean, that's the posture he has the commander in chief to say.

SPEAKER_02 8:08

That's the posture he has to take with all these things, whether it's about like, oh, I don't care about the oil prices or I don't care about those things. But you have to imagine that he does, but this is a negotiating stance, uh, both publicly and with the Iranians. But I mean, they just seem so far off on everything. I don't I mean, I know there's lots of rumors that a couple weeks ago they were on the edge of you know creating some kind of deal, but um yeah, like the nuclear thing, the straits, uh everything, you know, the the Lebanon, it seems like it's all still up in the air. And uh I still basically, yeah, like going long all our bets, and I don't see I don't I don't see how America could put the pressure on Iran unless they dramatically upscale the confrontation, which is again something we've we've talked about many times.

SPEAKER_01 8:58

Yeah, I mean the the ceasefire, the bets again performing well, it doesn't seem like there's gonna be a permanent peace deal. Is there a particular market in Iran that you guys feel like outside of maybe the Straits or the Permanent Peace Deal where there could still be some some alpha to be found or some interesting markets with uh US and Iran?

SPEAKER_02 9:18

I still have a a small nibble on the troops uh in Iran by the end of the year.

SPEAKER_01 9:24

I what's what's what's that at?

SPEAKER_02 9:29

Somebody else want to do Yeah, just Jamie pull it up on the right. Um I I mean I do still think like yeah, if if if the Americans want to have some kind of real play, it has to be something more troop based on the ground, whether it is an island island chain, whether it is going directly. I mean, uh so if you view like their hand is not strong, which would be my view, this is the only way to kind of up the ante, is is to kind of do something a little more dramatic. And again, I know there was lots of talk about uh you know troops moving in and stuff like that. I haven't heard anything lately about that situation, but you have to assume there's still something ready to go. What's what is the numbers on that, Andrew? Let's take a look here. Someone pull it up. Like the invasion bets or like the carg island bets? Yeah, the inv the invasion bets.

SPEAKER_01 10:22

Someday, guys, I I can live in Canada, one of the biggest countries in the world, living downtown or very close to it, and get reliable internet from any of my internet providers. It'll be great. But you know what, guys? No, no sponsorship yet, but I did just get my Starlink. So hopefully in the next few weeks. Oh, really?

SPEAKER_00 10:41

Yeah, we'll see how that goes. I mean, maybe that is something we should have been talking about this week is the uh the IPO.

SPEAKER_01 10:47

The SpaceX IPO. Yeah. I mean, that seems like that.

SPEAKER_02 10:50

Let's talk about let's let's talk about it. You guys, what do you guys think? I I'm like, I feel like you put it this way, I feel like I'm a huge Elon Musk fan. I have a decent amount of my stock portfolio in Tesla. There are strong rumors that one day they will merge together, but I would not put, I mean, and I've always been like, oh, I'd love to get into SpaceX, but this number just does seem crazy. I don't think I would be interested at at this price.

SPEAKER_00 11:15

It's interesting, um, and we've talked about this before, but like I feel like I'm you know too plugged in in a lot of ways, uh monitoring the situation too much. Uh but it's funny because you know, I was out for for drinks after soccer with my teammates um who make fun of me for talking about poly market, so I doubt they're listening. Um, but you know, the topic came up oh, IPOs and you know uh what's coming out, and they talked about day trading and stuff like that. And this period just reminds me, it's like that old uh anecdote about what things were like before the crash in the twenties. How I think it was maybe Rock one, a Rockefeller or something like that.

SPEAKER_02 12:03

No, it was Kennedy Kennedy it was Kennedy's father, whatever the he's name is. JFK's father's butt allegedly was told that.

SPEAKER_00 12:11

Well, the story was you know, a shoe shine boy or a uh elevator boy or something, you know, said, Hey, I got a great stock tip for you. Um there, Mr. Kennedy. And he's like, Well, if if yeah, if if if the plebs are are giving me stock tips, maybe it's time to get out. And not that my my my buddies who I play soccer are are plebs or or don't really know, but it you know, I saw that it's four times oversubscribed, this IPO. I think it's gonna spike like crazy, but I think this might be the last hurrahs of the market.

SPEAKER_01 12:47

Well, yeah, the viewers uh or listeners wouldn't have known this, but uh my I my internet just went out, and so I've switched over to hotspotting from my phone. So thank God for Elon and Starlink. Hopefully that won't be an issue. But yeah, it's it does seem crazy to me. It does seem like there's huge value with what Starlink is providing. And I was seeing these people online and on Next today criticizing this like you know YouTuber guy who was saying, like, oh, they're not gonna be able to handle cooling in space. I saw that too. It's so hilarious. Again, like I know it is different when there's not air. When you know, typically on Earth we rely on air cooling, but it's like, guys, they have like thousands of satellites operating internet in space. Like, I think they can figure out cooling off some some chips.

SPEAKER_02 13:31

My favorite was like there was like this tweet of someone is like, uh, I could just see Elon scrolling his phone late at night, scrolling X and being like, wait, oh crap, why didn't I think that space is a vacuum? Oh no, I didn't know what they look hopping up and like the whole planet is ruined.

SPEAKER_00 13:45

Yeah, but everyone knows the that's smart engineers on my team to help me out.

SPEAKER_02 13:51

I wish I knew anything about you know the physical world.

SPEAKER_01 13:54

Oh yeah. No, I yeah, I I think the space stuff is interesting, but yeah, I I I I missed what you guys uh talked about. I don't know if there's uh the IPO does seem like it could be overvalued. Oh, the interesting thing I saw, it's like it's it's set to make like 400 millionaires because obviously all these employees have some type of stock options. It's like they've said even like some of the janitorial staff who like you know probably get paid fairly well because SpaceX I think treats their employees well, but it's like even a small, small amount of stock options that they may have used are gonna be insane. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 14:25

I mean, I I I want to get in, but I I feel like uh not at this price.

SPEAKER_02 14:30

No, I don't think you want to get I don't I'm I'm I don't think you want to get in on anything. I think kind of money for it right now. I think uh this overall bubbly atmosphere combined with Iran, I think we are into a good chance that I think the whole thing blows up here in the next year or two. And we're and yeah, we're down big.

SPEAKER_01 14:48

Although I I don't want a situation where uh, you know, some people I may have heard of who have bought in uh bought a Tesla vehicle, you know, very early on when they started to come out. You know, you spend 100 grand on uh one of these first model S's. If you'd bought the stock in Tesla, I think that that would have been millions. So I I'm probably gonna sit here being like, oh, the 800, 900 bucks I spent a year on on uh my Starlink sat satellite, uh, maybe that would have been worth thousands if I had just put that into the IPL. So I that could be a situation like that.

SPEAKER_02 15:22

I just bought my shout out to the Patriot. Yeah, I just bought my first Tesla boys. I'm uh I'm now part of the Tesla family myself.

SPEAKER_00 15:29

Welcome, welcome.

SPEAKER_02 15:30

Um Welcome, welcome.

SPEAKER_01 15:32

Because I have inherited that same Tesla now sitting outside my house.

SPEAKER_00 15:36

Yeah, just speaking of uh uh potential economic issues in the future. Do we want to talk some uh Canadian alpha real quick? Matt, you had some wins.

SPEAKER_02 15:47

Yeah, we had a couple wins. Both uh US or sorry, Canada went into a technical recession. Here was announced a couple wins weeks ago, so that was a win.

SPEAKER_00 15:55

Uh I love how you're using their nomenclature, like technical recession as if it was never called that previously, as opposed to just a recession.

SPEAKER_01 16:04

A recession. So Canada's now and this is one where I I sold out on it long ago, and I it's just because I was trying to move money around into other markets, and man, yeah. No, I just I just Goodled that.

SPEAKER_02 16:16

So that was there was a nice little double up uh on the money, and then also we've talked a little bit about the market for referendum, and you know, some people in the group, not saying who, might have played the market bad, and some just held on and doubled our money.

SPEAKER_01 16:31

Okay, I I just have to say I have a genetic condition, and that's why I have such weak hands and I can't hodl. So that's what's going on there, okay?

SPEAKER_02 16:41

Sometimes you just have to forget you guys, you you make a bet and you wait. It's like it's like it's like a like in a game, you know? None of this live betting stuff, just just win or lose.

SPEAKER_00 16:50

Yeah, you don't get smarter as the as the the trade goes on. Uh, for those who maybe aren't aware, maybe we should just talk about what happened. Uh Danielle Smith, the the premier of Alberta, um she having already scheduled a referendum that was gonna happen in the fall, uh put out a statement saying that we were gonna have a question on this referendum about whether we should have a referendum to leave Canada, uh, us being here in Alberta. And as Matt is alluding to, I panic sold as soon as the uh announcement came out because it sure seemed to me, according to the rules of the market, that having a referendum about having a referendum would not qualify for a yes.

SPEAKER_01 17:46

Or yeah, just just a question about just a question about whether they would start the process to hold a referendum. When we we doubted i panic sold too, so obviously that's uh welcome to Matt there.

SPEAKER_02 17:58

And apparently it's good because it's already confirmed and I won. So yeah, take the money. Don't don't know why. I mean it sure seems like it wouldn't qualify, but just like some of those uh some of those uh Donnie and China China bets that I won that where he did say I ran, but apparently didn't uh you know sometimes you just gotta take the wins and sometimes the uh Uma whales are on your side, guys, and you just take your wins and your losses. What are you gonna do?

SPEAKER_01 18:24

Yeah, and I think I sold at that one on a major loss again because I was just like, well, might as well get a couple dollars out of this, and then it was like it spiked back the other way. And I was like, Well, geez, why didn't why don't I just hold on to these things?

SPEAKER_02 18:35

I think that's always a dumb thing is when you're like, oh, I get I can get two dollars on my, you know, it's like, hey, who knows? We'll see. Yeah. Um, okay, let's switch over to uh American politics in the midterms. Ender, I know you've been looking at a couple different Senate races, have some thoughts. Let's uh let's hop in and kind of discuss where we're looking as things gear towards up a big election here in the fall.

SPEAKER_00 18:59

Yeah, um, some some key races that uh most people are focusing on this week. The big one that everybody was talking about was Maine. You had uh Plattner. I'm blanking on his first name. It's Graham, Graham Plattner, yeah. Graham Plattner, uh, who is now the nominee, but was just the presumptive nominee last week, um, who already endured uh a seemingly unsermountable scandal of having a Nazi prison guard, uh like Skulling Bones uh Totenkof or whatever it's called on his chest for decades uh before getting it uh uh tattooed over here recently. Um so he survived that scandal, but this latest one to come out was a sex scandal, both in terms of it was alleged that he had some uh inappropriate relationships uh both as a married man and before he was married, um, some allegations of abuse, uh sexual uh improprieties, let's say. Um and it seemed like he was gonna maybe have some issues, and then the New York Times story came out, and he's shot back up to 65%, gonna win that seat. Uh, I'm in at 39. I still think that the the voters of uh of Maine are gonna uh choose the Susan Collins, who is a anti-Trump moderate, but Graham Plattiner sure seems like he's got a lot of momentum behind him.

SPEAKER_01 20:55

Yeah, so I mean, I I think those Senate races are interesting, but Andrew, can you give us the broader context on I mean, we want to talk about midterms in general, we want to talk about, you know, Senate majority. Where is it sitting right now for maybe those who don't follow uh maybe some of our viewers from new Australia, which we of course love, uh, you know, maybe they don't know what's going on with the Senate race. So uh why don't you let us know what the general like how many seats do we need to flip one way or the other? Because it is sitting at almost a 50-50, um, which we do want to discuss, but what what are your what are your thoughts on that generally, Andrew or Matt? I don't know if you've got thoughts on that as well.

SPEAKER_00 21:37

So there's gonna be 33 out of a hundred seats uh are gonna be contested in 2026. Um the there's a few seats that are sort of in the up for grabs territory, one being Maine, another one that the Democrats have hopes for. Is James Tallerico in Texas. Uh, but in total, um, Republicans are looking at a fifty-five percent chance to keep the Senate. There's uh four seats that they're looking to hold, uh, and one seat that the Dems are currently holding, which is kind of uh a coin up in the air, let's say.

SPEAKER_02 22:26

Well, there's coin tosses right now in Illinois, North Carolina, Kentucky, Ohio, and surprisingly in Texas. Like I'm a little shocked uh that Telerico right now is a 50-50 shot um to win his seat in Texas, considering how it used to be so you know, such a red state, but obviously now it's become a little bit purple.

SPEAKER_01 22:50

Well, currently it's what 51 to 47 overall in terms of where they're sitting. I mean, that with all those seats up for grabs. We know lots of them are gonna stick around because a lot of these senators stick around for a long time. Yeah, but let's let's do uh we we that leads us into this kind of market we've talked about here, which is which party will win the Senate in 2026. This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate election scheduled for November third November 3rd, 2026. Uh I don't know how this one's gonna resolve in terms of if it ends up as a tie, uh, because that's a possibility as well if it goes that ends up going 50-50. Vice president uh breaks the tie, so JD would I mean I know they break the tie on votes, but would that would that resolve to who who's controlling the Senate?

SPEAKER_02 23:39

Because I am um I mean I think I think like kind of like we discussed earlier, a lot of this comes down to you know how you think things will play out uh with uh economy overall, with the war in Iran and different things like that. And if you're kind of leaning towards some of the things like I am, like this is not gonna go to the best. I think uh if I had to pick, I would say Matt, you you gotta let me say that here. Sorry, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 24:10

If you had to. Uh I mean that's our this is our weekly if you had to. Matt, if you had to, who do you think is gonna control the Senate after 2026 based on your thoughts there?

SPEAKER_02 24:20

I would I would go Dems. And I have I I do have a bet on that I put down a while ago that we talked about on the Dems to control the House and the Senate. And if that does happen, and you know it's gonna basically completely derail Trump's agenda, even if they lose the House, which is looking highly likely to happen, it will probably be it. But I mean, if they lose the Senate, you could be talking about bigger things like impeachment and stuff like that as well, even though they probably won't get that through.

SPEAKER_01 24:45

So the the interesting thing is you can kind of go yes, no on Republicans or Democrats. So you Matt, would you just go yes on the de Democrats on this? And I mean it's kind of the same price, it looks like to either way that you kind of go on this. Yeah, I mean Okay. So that's 46 cents. Matt Matt would go yes on Democrats. Andrew, what are your thoughts if you had to?

SPEAKER_00 25:05

Uh I was actually kind of disappointed by by how uh easily um Platner was able to kind of squeeze out of these scandals that he was in. Um sure seems like the the Democrats, which were the party of me too, have kind of taken the Trump route of you know, saying, uh, doesn't matter. Character doesn't matter, uh all that matters is winning. And you know, in in a pure political power sense, it makes sense. Um I saw some polling that when voters were informed about Graham Plattner's uh scandals, it actually increased their propensity to vote for him, which again crazy to me. Uh but it sort of seems like the the Bernie Bro DSA kind of lefty dirtbag uh side of the Democrat Party is in ascendancy, and that kind of populism is playing very well uh in terms of pushing people to not to the to the polls for the general, but especially for the um for the primaries. So uh as much as I kind of instinctively want to go Republicans. Uh I I I think you're right, Matt. I think the Democrats uh things are not gonna get any better for Trump over the summer, and I think the Democratic numbers are gonna keep climbing. All right. I like it.

SPEAKER_01 26:49

Well, gonna keep it exciting again this week. I think if I had to go if I had to, uh I think I would probably Yeah, no, if I had to, I think I would also go yes on the Democratic Party, in in part because I think you're right, it does seem like they're on the upswing. It does seem like a lot of these politicians can kind of roll this off their back, but um, you know, at the end of the day, uh it's also a little bit more alpha, right? I can you can take it for the 46%. Um it seems to me like they've got a pretty decent shot to pull it off.

SPEAKER_02 27:21

Well, I wanted to touch on one more thing that I talked about recently that I want to uh double and triple down and might make one of my bigger bets, and that is Westmore that we've talked about. Oh, yes, yeah. You wanted to give the update on that one.

SPEAKER_01 27:37

I think this one's interesting too.

SPEAKER_02 27:38

It's only up a couple points, but if you look at what's happened in the Democrat uh market overall, is that you know Newsome has started to take a steady decline here in the last month or two. Um, but the people that have been receiving most of the uptake have been, you know, John Osoff and Talerico and um who are the couple other other names. Um and I I really don't like any of the beautics. Um and the thing that I think I know Andrew is talking about um, you know, that the farther left or the DSA wing of the Democratic Party is is going up and doing well, but in my mind, you know, the real chance for the Democrats to win the presidential nomination is for them to try to move more to the center. And we've seen Newsom doing this somewhat in the in the past while as well. And I really do think uh Wes Moore is kind of the perfect candidate for that. Um I think, you know, kind of like how, you know, uh we'll just the nice thing about talking about politics is like especially like on election night, because the first thing time they kind of like talk about race openly and you know, people that swing. I think as a black man, I think he can get he'll get less attacked for kind of going to the center than a white man would. I also think they're unlikely to try to put a woman in after the last two times, you know, she they've lost to Trump. And I think, yeah, kind of like Trump said about him, he's kind of like the you know central casting, good looking, you know, military background. He's got the whole kind of package, and um yeah, because of that, uh I really like him, and I think uh I think I'm gonna kind of up my ante on that bet.

SPEAKER_01 29:24

Well, it and like you talk about, it seems like there's not a ton above that have uh a greater chance. I mean, AOC has obviously gone down. You talked about that before. You talked about Awsoff. I mean, Shapiro, he see I like Shapiro, I think he could do well, but again, is is are people gonna wanna elect him as the nominee? I don't know. And Boutije, is that four percent? You know, I I mean I Buddyjej, good good old Pete. I don't I don't know if he he's gonna be the Democratic nominee. He pulls he pulls he pulls at zero percent with black people.

SPEAKER_02 29:55

They always joke about that.

SPEAKER_00 29:57

So it's like good luck winning South Carolina.

SPEAKER_01 29:59

Andrew Biden, guys, is it is is a is higher than Wes Moore, right? Like that now, that's crazy.

SPEAKER_02 30:05

Yeah, and he's right above he's right above the rock. So I mean, I I don't know. I I I've talked in the past about Cuban being my favorite bet. Um, and I still don't don't hate the bet. I think he might hop into the race. But no, yeah, um Wes Moore is now my favorite bet for this.

SPEAKER_00 30:22

He's definitely gonna run because he's already done the you know real time and the talk show circuit. I think he has a book.

SPEAKER_02 30:30

Yeah, no, I think he's I think he's set up to do well, and I think he'll I think I last step I I said Indiana, but it's Iowa. I think he'll I think he'd do good. He seems like I was like, I remember when I said it, I was like, I felt wrong, but I was like, you know, it's uh it's in the middle of America, it starts with an I. How could it not be Indiana? It's like, no, you idiot. It's Iowa. Um yeah, I think he would do good in Iowa. I think he's one of those guys who, you know.

SPEAKER_00 30:53

Well, the de the the Dems are gonna try and steal uh you know the ability to go first from Iowa. I think they already did that with Biden. So maybe Iowa won't even matter that much. What do you mean? Oh what do you I'm not sure what you're saying?

SPEAKER_02 31:09

Yeah, they'd try and make it uh they're gonna not do their first not do their first primary in Iowa, is that what you're saying?

SPEAKER_00 31:15

Well, Iowa's not actually a primary, it's um caucus.

SPEAKER_02 31:18

No, yeah, no, whatever. Yeah, whatever. Same thing. They're the first one, they're the first ones to go.

SPEAKER_01 31:22

Crazy thing to me though, guys, is it seems like if you look at the democratic presidential nominee 2028, the volume is over a billion dollars in the market. Like all of these are multiple, like most of these markets are bigger than all the individual markets that you were talking about or anything else. It's crazy. Oprah Winfrey has 53 million on her market alone.

SPEAKER_02 31:43

Like who, like who's putting 40 million dollars on Hunter Biden? It almost feels like it's this is some kind of like money laundering scam or something. Like, I don't understand how like like you what you're gonna put like millions of dollars on the no on Biden to make one and a half percent? Like, I don't get it. So, yeah, it is crazy how big the market is.

SPEAKER_00 32:04

It's it's it's crazy. So just to go back to it, in 2024, uh the Democratic Party moved up the South Carolina primary so that it was ahead of both New Hampshire and Nevada, not Iowa, but ahead of no New Hampshire, because that was the the state that pushed Biden over the top in 2020. Um, so they wanted to get that done and over with before going to New Hampshire.

SPEAKER_02 32:28

Yeah, no, I like how I I think I think the Democratic it's like it's like if you if you're like me and I think I don't think either of the top three, like meaning like I don't love Rubio or Vance chances either if things don't go well in the Republican uh you know Trump's presidency overall, but I still think there's a good chance they get the nominee. I think it's the most likely thing is one of those guys where I don't like any of the top three Democratic, and that's why I feel like there's a top a ton of alpha. Um I don't like I don't like the top six. I don't like the top six or sevens. So it's like, you know, lots of upside. Uh I think it's a market to kind of focus on. And you're gonna get liquidity key, apparently, because it's effing huge.

SPEAKER_01 33:10

It's moving around. Andrew, we did also want to talk about Ukraine and Russia. Um I think you had some thoughts on the the ceasefire. You also had some of the meeting bets, and then I think we also wanted to talk a little bit about the Crimea situation. So, what are your thoughts kind of going into that? Why what why are you still interested in these markets? It seems like things to me really are grinding down, all the drones. It's incredible what these people are doing. I don't know if you guys saw um Andrew Tate or something had like gotten up on top of a tank for just for like some video thing. And obviously somebody on social media was like, hey, you know, at Ukraine, please, please send in a drone to take this guy out. He's he's now a combatant because he's not he's on the tank. And then one of the actual brigades is like, hey guys, funny as it is, we you know, and then and you know, you don't become an actual combatant, and we're gonna save our drones for the bad guys.

SPEAKER_02 34:06

Well, the weird thing is, and Andrew, you can kind of go into because I obviously you're following this more uh than most, but like I haven't heard anything about Russia, and I I feel like I hear about you know, maybe it's just because Iran's kind of on the tip of the tongue of most of the stuff I'm following, but I get the details and the updates on what's going on with Iran, but I I don't feel like I've heard anything about Russia-Ukraine in a long time.

SPEAKER_01 34:25

If so, maybe kind of give us and and I feel like I'm seeing less of the footage despite these things being filmed constantly.

SPEAKER_02 34:32

Yeah, so maybe Adrian, I we haven't really talked Russia or Ukraine, I I think kind of in detail in months. So if you want to kind of maybe give us um kind of like where the overall uh situation maybe has changed in the last six months and what you kind of see going forward and what the alpha might be.

SPEAKER_00 34:51

Yeah, so I mean Ukraine's uh I mean I think it is underreported on, and I I think it has faded from the public uh attention for sure. Um, but it's it it's fascinating to the point that this war has changed uh how it's fought multiple times already in um I guess the four and a half years it's been going on now. Um which is it's gonna surpass World War One here soon in terms of I was just gonna say it's like World War World War length at this point. That's crazy. Um so the initial war was you know largely uh fought using combined arms uh tactics, uh armored uh columns. Um that is completely changed. Uh almost all the pre-war inventory of armored vehicles and tanks and uh armor personnel carriers that Russia have uh had in in surplus, which all the the old Soviet surplus that was built up over decades, all of that's now been depleted. They're essentially down to you know uh scraps and and uh vehicles that were designed in the 50s at this point. Not that they're even useful anymore because first-person uh FPV drones have been engineered and designed to be so effective, uh, including the ones that use the fiber optic tethers, to the point now where the no armored vehicle could even get to the front line without being blown up. And massed troops uh would be a suicide mission for for most of the front lines of the war right now, it's actually sort of a big uh wide open kilometer long range where nobody can really uh uh act or do any sort of maneuvering without being attacked by drones on both sides. And then the latest ace in the card that Ukraine has come up with is these mid-range uh one-way attack drones, which they've they're producing domestically in mass numbers, which are so successful that they've gotten to the point where all along sort of southern Ukraine, which Russia ha has occupied since the start of the war, the supply lines are getting shredded to the point where highway uh highways are not safe for um military vehicles or even civilian vehicles which are carrying military supplies to travel on, and these mid uh mid-range drones have AI built into them that allow them to select targets based on military uh you know importance and strategy. And the And these mid-range uh one-way attack bombers essentially, or just you know, bombs with wings attached to them, have gotten so good that they're successfully um not only degrading uh the the military posture of Russia in occupied Ukraine, but they're also going at uh oil and uh refinery facilities, which is depleting Russia's ability to sell their oil to foreign markets and and get the cash that comes from that. Um to the extent which, long story short, I think this uh conflict is hitting uh an inflection point. It's hard to know exactly where that's gonna go from there. Any sort of uh perceived loss uh for for Putin would would be fatal. Uh but at the same time, they're getting to a point where the elites of Russia are realizing that this war is now uh untenable, uh unwinnable, and in along those lines, there has to be a breaking point at somewhere. And my largest bet is I think there's going to be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine between now and the end of October, before the the winter sort of trench conditions kick in. I think Putin will try and negotiate a palatable deal that'll allow him to retool and re-arm, uh, but uh uh the Ukrainians uh as uh obstinate as they seemingly are, uh, are not gonna make it easy for them to get a deal across the table.

SPEAKER_01 39:59

Well, I mean, it seems like if that's gonna happen, then we're gonna have to, you know, go into maybe some of our other thoughts or bets here with like meetings. Do we think there's actually gonna be some type of peace meeting with Zelensky and Putin? Trump. Um, you know, uh and the interesting play that you brought up kind of initially there, Andrew, too, was Crimea and how that any kind of movement into Crimea from Ukraine could be a big leverage point in any sort of meetings and negotiations.

SPEAKER_00 40:27

Yeah, I mean that's the the report that came out this past week is uh Russia basically has enough anti-air defense left to protect Moscow, to protect St. Petersburg, but that means they've had to pull uh those batteries from parts of occupied Ukraine, including the Crimean Peninsula. It has been so hard to get supplies to the Crimean Peninsula that parts of it are now being abandoned. And I mean, I think I talked about this back in 25, but I still have uh some money writing on will Ukraine uh you know within the month, within by the end of June, uh, occupy uh parts of Crimea. It's uh it's a slim bet. Uh it's down to like one something percent now. But the bet that I like more is by the end of the year, will they have landed some troops on the Crimean Peninsula, which is just across from Kherson, uh similar to what they did in Kursk, where they are trying to both pin down Russian troops and and make them waste valuable blood and and and and resources trying to retake uh the parts that Ukraine invaded, but also um you know making them worry about uh you know territory on Crimea, which they consider inviolate and part of Russia, if if the Ukraine can gain some of that back, then that might be a bargaining chip going into the uh going into some potential negotiations to hopefully for Ukraine not have to lose all of the Donbass and all those other regions.

SPEAKER_01 42:13

Right. I mean it does make sense that they're like oh we care about the Donbass in these areas, but Crimea as a strategic point by the sea there is worth a lot more. And so yeah, I think I think you're right.

SPEAKER_00 42:25

Well, also as a psychological point, right? Because you know, of the Crimean War, which was fought in the 1860s or whatever, right? That was a foundational uh moment in Russian history. Giving that up to Ukraine is untenable, I imagine, in most Russians' eyes.

SPEAKER_01 42:41

Yeah, no, and that makes sense to me, right? I mean, it's uh the the Russians if as soon as they start to see that maybe getting clawed back, they're gonna they're gonna have some concerns. But uh yeah, I don't think there was too much else we uh we wanted to discuss here. Um I I think there is some alpha still to be made with the Ukraine and Russia bets. Like you say, I think ceasefires are interesting. The Crimea bet, Andrew. I mean, we're we're looking at like the ground invasion in Crimea is the bet in the market that you were looking at, right? Do you know do you know what the yeah?

SPEAKER_00 43:13

I uh I bought in at 16% uh for uh Ukraine to recapture some, and it all has to be is any part on that ISW map that uh is shaded for Ukraine colors, but it's currently at 12%, so might have bought in uh a little early, but uh I'm hoping it'll still turn my away.

SPEAKER_01 43:36

Yeah, and we've we've talked about the the benefits of hodling in some of these situations, right? Because things can change pretty quickly. Um Matt, did you have any thoughts on the Ukraine-Russia stuff? And uh did you have any markets still ongoing there?

SPEAKER_02 43:50

I mean, like I said, I I haven't been following um much of this. I do view a lot of these things as like um you know, somewhat interconnected, you know, when you're talking about Iran, um China, you know, potentially NATO, and like there's all these different relationships going on with America that seems to be, you know, kind of changing and and dynamic. And it um, you know, it it'd be interesting to see how it plays out if they if they can get a ceasefire there. You wonder, you know, how much that has to do with things maybe having to also be a ceasefire in Iran or coming some kind of a big large agreement with China. I've kind of talked about this in the past as well. And um lately I've become a little more dubious that it could all magically work out well. So hey, here's hoping.

SPEAKER_01 44:42

But uh yeah, I mean, we know Trump wants to make some type of magical deal to just make everything go away all at the same time, you know. Some type of giant Abraham cord type situation.

SPEAKER_02 44:52

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 44:52

Uh, you know, Trump Trump doesn't seem to be bringing bringing the hammer that he helped at some of these issues.

SPEAKER_02 45:00

Yeah, all right. Well, I think that's enough for this week, uh, all right, uh good one up here.

SPEAKER_01 45:09

31 in the books, and uh we'll be back next week or maybe in two weeks to discuss some more polymarks. Okay, sounds good, boys. Love ya.

SPEAKER_00 45:18

All right, love you boys.

unknown 45:24

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